Predicting the future: climate change modelling requires cautious use

A new paper published in Nature Climate Change (Harrison et al. Implications of evaluation of CMIP5 palaeosimulations for climate projections. Nature Climate Change 5: 735-743. August 2015) suggests that we need to exercise considerable caution about future projections of regional climate changes.

The paper looks at features of the climate that are characteristic of 21st century projections and then examines whether state-of-the-art climate models predict these features correctly in the geologic past. Lead author, Sandy Harrison says “This is necessary because future climate changes will be much larger than anything we have experienced in last hundred years or so when we have meteorological observations. But there is abundant geologic evidence for large climate changes in the past that can be used to see whether the models are working”.

The paper shows that climate models capture the large-scale patterns of temperature change, including the fact that warming over land is more than twice as much as over the ocean and that the biggest warming will occur in high latitudes. They also reproduced the observed global relationship between precipitation changes and temperature as temperature increases.

However, the paper shows that the models do not capture the scale of regional climate changes. The models predict an increase in monsoon rainfall both in the future projections and in the mid-Holocene, 6000 years ago, in response to enhanced land-sea temperature contrast. Abundant evidence shows that the Sahara desert was vegetated and supported abundant wildlife during the mid-Holocene, but models underestimate the observed change in precipitation in northern Africa by at least 50%.

Modelled changes can also be opposite to what actually occurred.  Models predict drying in the mid-continents in both the future and the mid-Holocene. The mid-Holocene predictions for central Eurasia are wrong – palaeoenvironmental data show that this region was in fact wetter and cooler than today – and this raises serious concerns about the future projections for the region.

Our evaluations give us confidence that the general trajectory of modelled global warming is correct and that means that model estimates of what we need to do to limit global warming, say to less than two degrees, are likely to be realistic – which is very good news indeed. However, many government agencies want to use the projections for planning purposes at a local scale and here I think we have to exercise considerable caution about what the models say”.

New book by Dr Daniel Howells out on Late Antique Gold Glass

“A Catalogue of the Late Antique Gold Glass in the British Museum”, by Daniel Thomas Howells is now published (http://bit.ly/1KfTVJb) and will be soon available in the library.

Dr. Howells completed his MA here at Reading in 2006 and then went on to undertake a Phd with the University of Sussex in collaboration with the British Museum.

This publication is the most in depth of its kind since 1901 and is a must-read for all those with an interest in gold glass!

Leverhulme Trust grant funds new project on prehistoric round mounds

roundmoundsDr Jim Leary has recently been awarded a grant from The Leverhulme Trust to fund a project entitled ‘Extending Histories: from Medieval Mottes to Prehistoric Round Mounds’, which will run until the end of 2017.

The Round Mounds project seeks to unlock the history of monumental mounds in the English landscape. Neolithic round mounds, such as Silbury Hill – the largest prehistoric mound in Europe, are among the rarest and least well understood monuments in Britain. Recent work by Jim Leary at the medieval Marlborough Castle motte, Wiltshire, has shown it to be a Neolithic round mound which was reused in the medieval period, and raises the possibility that other castle mottes may have prehistoric origins. This research project therefore seeks to uncover prehistoric mounds that were adapted for medieval defence or have been misidentified as later mottes – a previously unrecognized phenomenon that could re-write our understanding of both the later Neolithic and Norman periods.

The Leverhulme grant will fund a programme of archaeological investigation, the team (Jim Leary, Nick Branch, Elaine Jamieson, Phil Stastney and Quest) adopting an interdisciplinary approach to understanding large mounds. The work will involving a programme of coring, analytical earthwork survey, scientific dating and detailed environmental analysis, and will determine the date of construction, sequence of development and environmental context of 20 mounds from across England.

 

Click to read more about Jim Leary, Nick Branch, and QUEST.

Experimental Earthwork recording at Wroughton

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A small team of present and former students from the Archaeology Department at Reading University spent a week at the beginning of June 2015 recording an experimental earthwork, at the Science Museum Group facility at Wroughton in Swindon.

The octagonal earthwork was constructed in 1985 by the world renowned experimental archaeologist Dr Peter Reynolds. Reynolds died prematurely in 2001 and not much has been published on the results of this experiment. The excavation 30 years after the earthwork’s construction was prompted by the forthcoming removal of three-quarters of the earthwork in order to build a solar farm.  It was clearly important to record the changes to the earthwork over the last 30 years, as a result of weathering, vegetation colonisation, faunal and other processes. 

1This is the sixth earthwork to have been investigated using similar methods by the writer. The excavations have demonstrated that changes to buried soils, for instance, occur very rapidly after burial, such that a thirty year old buried soil has many characteristics of one buried for millennia. So experiments lasting as little as 30 years are a valuable guide as to how the archaeological and palaeoenvironmental record has formed.  The ditch sediments at Wroughton showed evidence for annual banding over the first 5 or 6 years of sedimentation in some but not all sections. This could be potentially interesting in identifying the seasonality of placed deposits in the primary fills of prehistoric ditches. We hope to do some follow up analysis on the buried soils if funding can be found.

By Professor Martin Bell

Read more about Martin at his staff profile.

Turkey blog: account of a field trip to central Turkey with Professor Roger Matthews, module ARMETU Archaeology of Early Turkey, May-June 2015

By: Ben Camp, Nick Harper, Alex Pope, Debs Young (MA students, Department of Archaeology, University of Reading)

 

Day 1

After a night at the British Institute at Ankara the first place we visited was the Anatolian Civilisations Museum in Ankara. It is housed in a fantastic Ottoman building dating to the 15th century AD. Called a Han, it housed shops and accommodation for travellers, located in the old citadel. The artefacts throughout the museum were astounding and we would throughly recommend it to anyone travelling to Ankara.

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Next we travelled with our bus and driver Selim Bey to Gordion, a site that has hosted such historic figures as Midas and Alexander the Great. We were greeted with the traditional British archaeological weather – rain and strong winds. First we went to Tumulus MM, stupefying for the size of the mound itself (53m high) and the size of the juniper logs covering the burial chamber, dated to 740 BC. Then we went to the mound of Gordion. We saw the Early Phrygian citadel and the Middle Phrygian gate. It was amazing to see how much was still standing.

 

Day 2

A long drive to Çatalhöyük, but it was worth every mile. Walking up the slope of the höyük (archaeological mound) in the sunshine towards the shelter only increased the sense of excitement and anticipation. Actually entering the shelter and standing in front of the 7000 BC village laid out before us was unbelievable. It is difficult to express in words quite what the site is like and know that this was a place that people chose to live in for generation after generation.

IMG_2577Following the track across the mound with the pottery broken and discarded beneath our feet, we then entered the South Shelter and were left stunned at the panoramic vista of the many levels which dropped in front of us. We highly recommend a visit to Çatalhöyük, and to one of our group especially it was a much dreamt of visit.

We then drove the short distance to Boncuklu, a site even earlier than Çatalhöyük and which could prove in the future to be just as important. After an informative tour of the site, the guard invited us all for chay (tea), but which actually turned out to be a three course lunch eaten cross-legged on the floor of his family home. Wonderful food in the company of very welcoming and friendly people just added to an already fabulous day.

Acemhöyük was the last stop of the day, and after another long drive in torrential rain, we arrived just before the sun set and climbed precariously up the slippery mud slope clad in waterproofs, much to the amusement of the local villagers, to whom we no doubt looked like the archetypical English archaeologists! The heavily burnt site was too muddy to explore in detail but we were able to determine the extent and rich colours of the walls, brought to life by the wet conditions, especially when the setting sun shone its rays on the burnt Middle Bronze Age palaces, dated to 1650 BC.

A late night arrival at the hotel was greeted with enthusiasm by all after a long but wonderful day.

 

Day 3

The drive to Kültepe-Kaneš was not particularly long, and whilst the mound is visible from a distance, the karum, possibly the most important element of the site, is not. The site principally dates to the late third and early second millennia BC, including the Old Assyrian trading period, with the two most important levels of the lower town dating to this period. Recent excavations and survey have revealed that the well-preserved ruins extend even further into the beautiful countryside than previously expected. The lower town produced some 23,500 cuneiform texts of clay baked in the great conflagration that consumed the entire lower town in the middle of this period. The mound is also important, with recent discoveries of a massive administrative building dating to 2400 BC.

After Kültepe-Kaneš we then proceeded to Alişarhöyük, climbing the mound and inspecting the early twentieth century excavation trenches. Our final site for the third day was Alacahöyük, where both the museum and reconstructed tombs were amazing. The reliefs and sphinx gate were beautiful examples of Hittite art and after exploring the Hittite palace we had tea at a local café before proceeding to our lovely hotel at Hattusa, famous capital of the Hittites.

 

Day 4

We started the day by exploring the religious sanctuary of Yazılıkaya. The site is famous for its rock reliefs and it is easy to see why. The rock carvings were extremely impressive and the entire site had an atmosphere which indicated why the Hittite chose this place as a religious sanctuary.

We then travelled the short distance to the Hittite capital Hattusa. We spent the next six hours walking and exploring this massive site in the hot sun, looking at the many temples, royal buildings and gates which are scattered across the ancient city. Walking really gave us a great idea of what this ancient capital might have been like at the height of its power and it was a brilliant experience which we would thoroughly recommend. As we walked from one end of the city to the other we climbed 300m in height! After a lovely meal at Mehmet’s glorious Kale Otel we made the long drive back to Ankara in the dusk.

 

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Day 5

In Ankara airport again, and it is with great sadness that we call time on the adventure. It has been the trip of a lifetime and the memories will last forever. Thanks to our driver Selim Bey and the British Institute in Ankara for facilitating the trip (particularly Selim Bey, who drove a crazy number of miles!). But special thanks must go to Professor Roger Matthews, who was the best host and guide we could have had. He really made the trip come alive. Until next time…

 

 

Special thanks to SAGES PGT fund and Reading International Office for their financial contributions to enable this field trip to happen, and to all our friends at BIAA.

 

For more photos from the trip, check out the album here.

Pascal Flohr attends workshop on ‘traditional’ farming societies

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Recently, Pascal Flohr from the Reading Archaeology Department visited the Rif Mountains in Morocco to attend a workshop on ‘traditional’ farming societies. Researchers based on Morocco and in the UK discussed ways to study farming in the past (in archaeology) and present. Early farming societies are an important focus of the research and teaching in Reading, like the first farmers in the Middle East.

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Image 1: While the workshop also consisted of lectures, an important part was learning in the field. Here, workshop attendants are collecting weeds from the edge of a crop field. Weed seeds are often found in archaeological excavations and can tell us about the way people were farming. For example, certain weeds are associated with manured crops, which means that the farmer was making an effort to improve his fields.

Image 2: Who needs powerpoint? Professor Hodgson (Sheffield) explains different weed categories and what they can tell us.

Image 3: The reason the workshop took place in the Rif Mountains in Morocco is that relatively traditional, small-scale ways of farming are still in use here.

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Dr Duncan Garrow wins grant for underwater survey in Outer Hebrides

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Dr Duncan Garrow has been successful in gaining a grant of £9842 from the Honor Frost Foundation to undertake underwater survey, geophysics and remote sensing work in several lochs in Lewis, Outer Hebrides, with his long-time collaborator and Principal Investigator on the project Fraser Sturt (Southampton).

Divers and local archaeologists from Lewis have found a number of complete Neolithic pots on the bottom of several lochs, suggesting they may have come from submerged settlements (dating to c. 4000-2500 BC) preserved under the water. Duncan and Fraser, in collaboration with various expert colleagues, are hoping to find out what these settlements looked like, how well preserved they are, and why they became submerged. Find out more about the sites here.

Congratulations, Duncan!

Professor Mike Fulford wins ‘Archaeologist of the Year’

Mike accepts the 2015 Current Archaeology Award for Archaeologist of the Year (sponsored by Andante Travels). It was presented by Julian Richards of Meet the Ancestors (L) Credit to: Current Archaeology/Mark Edwards

Mike accepts the 2015 Current Archaeology Award for Archaeologist of the Year. It was presented by Julian Richards of Meet the Ancestors (L)
Credit to: Current Archaeology/Mark Edwards

Professor Mike Fulford was honoured at Current Archaeology Live! 2015 last week, winning ‘Archaeologist of the Year’ by popular vote.

The awards pay tribute to archaeology’s star projects and publications that made the pages of CA this year, and the people judged to have made outstanding contributions to archaeology.  They are voted for entirely by the public, and there are no panels of judges.

Accepting the award, Mike says “I’m really delighted to receive the ‘Archaeologist of the Year Award’ for 2015.  It’s a great honour and  a particular pleasure to have received the award from a former University of Reading student, Julian Richards.”

Mike poses with Amanda Clarke, site director of the Silchester Town Life project, and Julian Richards.  Credit to: Current Archaeology/Mark Edwards

Mike poses with Amanda Clarke, site director of the Silchester Town Life project, and Julian Richards.
Credit to: Current Archaeology/Mark Edwards

Mike has directed excavations at Silchester, a major Roman and Iron Age site in Hampshire, for almost 20 years. The Reading Archaeology Field School was based at the excavations until the project ended last year. However, the work continues with the new Silchester Environs Iron Age project, and there will continue to be opportunities for our students to take part in further archaeological work both inside and outside the Roman town over the next 3 years.

About Mike

Michael Fulford is Professor of Archaeology at the University of Reading. He was elected a Fellow of the British Academy in 1994 (currently serving as its Treasurer), and was appointed CBE in the 2011 New Years Honours for Services to Scholarship. He was appointed a Commissioner of English Heritage last May and in that role chairs the English Heritage Advisory Committee. For the past 18 years he has directed the recently-concluded Silchester Town Life Project, and is also director of a five-year Leverhulme Trust-funded project on the Rural Settlement of Roman Britain. Check out his staff profile for more.

 

Dr Hella Eckardt wins Faculty of Science prize for Best Research Output

HellaEckardt_1940_wCongratulations to Dr Hella Eckardt, who has won the Faculty of Science prize for Best Research Output for her single author volume: Objects and Identities – Roman Britain and the North-western Provinces.

Hella’s book won the prize against stiff competition from all the Schools in the Faculty of Science. Ben Cosh, Dean of Science, described the book as an outstanding example of Reading’s world leading research in Heritage, Creativity & Values.  He went on to say: ‘As far as it is possible for a non-specialist to draw such a conclusion, it seems clear to me that you have introduced an entirely novel theoretical approach and methodology in the use of artefacts and the integration of archaeological evidence during consideration of fundamental aspects of our culture and heritage. I fully concur with the expectation expressed in the supporting nomination that this work will bring about a step-change in how artefacts are used in archaeological investigation and that, as such, it will have a major influence on the manner in which a range of social and economic questions are addressed by researchers worldwide.’

 

Roberta Gilchrist on ‘The British Castle: A Woman’s Place’

Tune in to BBC Radio 3 tonight at 10:45pm to hear Professor Roberta Gilchrist feature as part of ‘The Essay: The Fall and Rise of the British Castle’ series.

Roberta will explore how women played a significant role in the history of British castles alongside the men who inhabited these spaces. Very often the visitor to a medieval castle in Britain is confronted with a mass of information and interpretation about the military activities of the men who inhabited these spaces, but very little about the women. Roberta argues that traditional interpretations of castles ignore the gendered spaces – the gardens, the apartments, the kitchens where female servants cooked, or indeed the adjoining parklands where aristocratic women occasionally hunted.

More details on the programme here: http://bbc.in/1uxmBkyRobertaGilchrist_3283-e (1)