Economic History

The Centre for Economic History is pleased to announce an upcoming workshop:

Centre for Economic History, University of Reading and Centre for Institutional Performance, University of Reading

 Joint workshop on Large Data-sets in Economic History Research

Friday 22 February 2013

Room 102, Palmer Building, University of Reading, Whiteknights, Reading

 The workshop will explore the scope for applying new statistical methods to the analysis of large historical data sets. Wide-ranging papers will examine many different applications of ‘big data’ to mainstream issues in historical research. Discussion will focus on formulating an emergent agenda for research in the field.

The workshop comprises ten papers of 30 minutes each (20 minutes presentation and 10 minutes discussion)

 9.15     Registration and coffee

10.00   Welcome and introduction: Mark Casson (Reading) and Nigar Hashimzade (Reading) (speaker MCC)

10.10   Statistical methods for the analysis of large data-sets: Nigar Hashimzade (Reading)

10.40   Long run price dynamics: the measurement of substitutability between commodities Mark Casson (Reading), Nigar Hasimzade (Reading) and Catherine Casson (Birmingham and Oxford) (presenter MCC)

11.10   Coffee

11.30   The Quantity Theory of Money in Historical Perspective: Nick Mayhew (Oxford)

12.00   Medieval foreign exchange and interest rates Adrian Bell (Reading), Chris Brooks (Reading) and Tone Moore (Reading) (presenter TBA)

12.30   Local property values in fourteenth and fifteenth century England Margaret Yates (Reading)

13.00   Lunch

14.00   The dynamics of social networks: The Liverpool Africa Committee Sheryllynne Haggerty (Nottingham), John Haggerty (Salford) and Mark Casson (Reading) (presenter JH)

14.30   Railways and local population growth: Mark Casson (Reading), Leigh Shaw-Taylor (Cambridge), A.E.M. Satchell (Cambridge) and E.A. Wrigley (Cambridge) (presenter TBA)

15.00   Women’s land ownership in nineteenth-century England: Janet Casson (Oxford)

15.30   Coffee

15.45   The diffusion of steam technology in England: Ploughing engines 1860-1930: Jane McCutchan (Reading)

16.15   Industrious burglars: funding consumption from property crime Jane Humphries (Oxford) and Sara Horrell (Cambridge) (presenter TBA)

16.45   Concluding discussion

17.00   Drinks reception

 18.15 Dinner at the Oracle

Whilst there is no charge for attendance at this workshop it is recommended that you register early to secure a place. Please contact Amanda Harvey by email a.h.harvey@reading.ac.uk.

Lunch and coffees are included. Please advise us if you plan to attend the dinner. Dinner is free for visiting speakers (i.e. non-Reading paper authors and co-authors).

The Centre for Economic History is pleased to announce an upcoming conference:

Centre for Economic History, University of Reading Royal Statistical Society, History Group

History of Business and Economic Forecasting

Friday 22 March 2013

University of Reading, Whiteknights, Reading

Forecasts have had a profound impact on economic behaviour. Optimistic forecasts can generate booms, whilst pessimistic forecasts can tip an economy into recession. In the twentieth century forecasting has become big business, with governments, banks and private consultancies all producing regular annual, monthly or even weekly forecasts. Forecasts cover commodity prices, equity prices, interest rates, inflation rates, gross domestic product, and so on.  Forecasts influence the policies of governments, the strategies of firms and the positions taken by speculators.

This conference reviews that growth of the forecasting industry, with special reference to the US and UK. It addresses the philosophical roots of forecasting, the development of practical forecasting methods, the evolution of the commercial market for forecasts, and the impact of forecasting on business consultancy. The conference brings together experts from a range of relevant disciplines, including business and economic history, economics and econometrics and mathematics and statistics.

Whilst there is no charge for attendance at this conference it is recommended that you register early to secure a place. Please contact Amanda Harvey by email a.h.harvey@reading.ac.uk

 Draft Programme

 Registration

• From 9:30

Session 1 Chair: Professor Peter Scott (Henley Business School, University of Reading)

• 10.00  Professor Walter Friedman (Harvard Business School) ‘The rise of business forecasting in the United States’

11.00   Coffee

Session 2 Chair: Mr. John Aldrich (Department of Economics, University of Southampton)

• 11.30  Professor Kerry Patterson (Department of Economics, University of Reading) and Professor Terence C. Mills (School of Business and Economics, University of Loughborough)‘The development of econometric techniques and their influence on economic forecasting in Britain [provisional]
• 12.15  Professor Mark Wardman (Institute of Transport Studies, University of Leeds) ‘Forecasting railway passenger demand’

1.00 Lunch

Session 3: Chair: Dr. Eileen Magnello (Department of Science and Technology Studies, University College London)

• 2.00 Professor Marcel Boumans (Faculty of Economics and Business, University of Amsterdam) ‘Model-based expert consensus in economic forecasting’
• 2.45 Professor Nick Bingham (Department of Mathematics, Imperial College London) ‘The impact of probability and statistical theory on the development of forecasting’ [provisional] 

3.30     Tea

Session 4: Chair: Dr. Lisa Bud-Frierman (Centre for Institutional Performance, University of Reading)

• 4.00 Dr Christopher McKenna (Said Business School, University of Oxford) and Mr Antonio E. Weiss (Birkbeck College, University of London) ‘Management Consulting and Market for Economic Forecasting’ [provisional]

4.45     General discussion

5.00     Drinks

6.00    Dinner

Centre for Economic History

Workshop on Research in Progress

Friday 23 November 2012, 2pm – 6pm

University of Reading, Whiteknights, Palmer building, Room G04

2.00 Annalisa Marzano: Harvesting the sea: the exploitation of marine resources in the Roman Mediterranean

2.30 John Creighton:   The velocity of circulation and the movement of coin in the Roman provinces

3.00 Tony Moore: State finance and government debt in the thirteenth and fourteenth centuries

3.30 Coffee break

4.00 Richard Hoyle: The school as firm: Writing the history of Giggleswick School, 1512-2012

4.30 Joel Felix:  Fiscal origins of the French Revolution

5.00 Andrew Godley: The German origins of research capabilities in the US pharmaceutical industry

5.30 DRINKS

6.00 End of workshop

For further details contact Mark Casson m.c.casson@reading.ac.uk

On 23^rd March 2012 a distinguished group of over 50 delegates and speakers from the US and Britain gathered for the launch of the new Centre for Economic History.

Events included a lively conference ‘Crisis and Change in Historical Perspective’ during the day, followed by a reception and the formal launch of the Centre by the Vice Chancellor Sir David Bell.

For further details please read the full Centre for Economic History Launch Report here.

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