Scorecasting Economists

Championship, R44 (14-16 July, 2020) — Rams need a win, but only 30% chance of that tonight at Cardiff

The table below gives the Model’s forecasts for Round 44 of the English Championship, along with forecast probabilities estimated from current online bookmaker odds.

EFL Champ Forecasts R44 2020, RED
  • Expected Goals: the forecast average number of goals the Model expects for Home and Away teams
  • Outcome Probs: the model predicted % chance of either a Home or Away win, with 100 minus these two numbers being the % chance of a draw.
  • Score Picks: the Most likely forecast scoreline outcome, as well as the most likely conditional on the most likely result outcome happening.
  • Home wins / Draws / Away wins: the predicted % chance of various potential scoreline outcomes of the match.
  • Mean odds: Estimates of online bookmakers’ average probability forecasts for the Home and Away teams to win, which could be compared with Outcome Probs.

Premier League, R36 (14-17 July) — Chelsea given 73% chance of taking advantage of relegated Canaries

The table below gives the Model’s forecasts for Round 36 of the Premier League, along with forecast probabilities estimated from current online bookmaker odds.

EPL Forecasts R36 2020, RED
  • Expected Goals: the forecast average number of goals the Model expects for Home and Away teams
  • Outcome Probs: the model predicted % chance of either a Home or Away win, with 100 minus these two numbers being the % chance of a draw.
  • Score Picks: the Most likely forecast scoreline outcome, as well as the most likely conditional on the most likely result outcome happening.
  • Home wins / Draws / Away wins: the predicted % chance of various potential scoreline outcomes of the match.
  • Mean odds: Estimates of online bookmakers’ average probabbility forecasts for the Home and Away teams to win, which could be compared with Outcome Probs.

Championship, R43 (10-12 July, 2020) — Last chance for Luton? They have a 29% chance of beating Huddersfield tonight.

The table below gives the Model’s forecasts for Round 43 of the English Championship, along with forecast probabilities estimated from current online bookmaker odds.

Champ forecasts EFL, R43 2020, RED
  • Expected Goals: the forecast average number of goals the Model expects for Home and Away teams
  • Outcome Probs: the model predicted % chance of either a Home or Away win, with 100 minus these two numbers being the % chance of a draw.
  • Score Picks: the Most likely forecast scoreline outcome, as well as the most likely conditional on the most likely result outcome happening.
  • Home wins / Draws / Away wins: the predicted % chance of various potential scoreline outcomes of the match.
  • Mean odds: Estimates of online bookmakers’ average probability forecasts for the Home and Away teams to win, which could be compared with Outcome Probs.

Premier League, R35 (11-13 July) — Watford on the brink: only 30% chance of 3 points at home to Newcastle

The table below gives the Model’s forecasts for Round 35 of the Premier League, along with forecast probabilities estimated from current online bookmaker odds.

EPL Forecasts R35 2020, RED, 2020
  • Expected Goals: the forecast average number of goals the Model expects for Home and Away teams
  • Outcome Probs: the model predicted % chance of either a Home or Away win, with 100 minus these two numbers being the % chance of a draw.
  • Score Picks: the Most likely forecast scoreline outcome, as well as the most likely conditional on the most likely result outcome happening.
  • Home wins / Draws / Away wins: the predicted % chance of various potential scoreline outcomes of the match.
  • Mean odds: Estimates of online bookmakers’ average probabbility forecasts for the Home and Away teams to win, which could be compared with Outcome Probs.

Championship, R42 (7-9 July, 2020) — Brentford have 59% chance of keeping on winning and pushing for automatic promotion.

he table below gives the Model’s forecasts for Round 42 of the English Championship, adjusted for the fact these matches are taking place behind closed doors, along with forecast probabilities estimated from current online bookmaker odds.

Forecasts of Championship R42 2020, RED
  • Expected Goals: the forecast average number of goals the Model expects for Home and Away teams
  • Outcome Probs: the model predicted % chance of either a Home or Away win, with 100 minus these two numbers being the % chance of a draw.
  • Score Picks: the Most likely forecast scoreline outcome, as well as the most likely conditional on the most likely result outcome happening.
  • Home wins / Draws / Away wins: the predicted % chance of various potential scoreline outcomes of the match.
  • Mean odds: Estimates of online bookmakers’ average probability forecasts for the Home and Away teams to win, which could be compared with Outcome Probs.

Premier League, R34 (7-9 July) — Arsenal 47% chance of defeating the Foxes — has home advantage returned?

The table below gives the Model’s forecasts for Round 34 of the Premier League, adjusted for the fact these matches are taking place behind closed doors, along with forecast probabilities estimated from current online bookmaker odds.

 

Forecasts EPL R34 2020, RED
  • Expected Goals: the forecast average number of goals the Model expects for Home and Away teams
  • Outcome Probs: the model predicted % chance of either a Home or Away win, with 100 minus these two numbers being the % chance of a draw.
  • Score Picks: the Most likely forecast scoreline outcome, as well as the most likely conditional on the most likely result outcome happening.
  • Home wins / Draws / Away wins: the predicted % chance of various potential scoreline outcomes of the match.
  • Mean odds: Estimates of online bookmakers’ average probabbility forecasts for the Home and Away teams to win, which could be compared with Outcome Probs.

Championship, R41 (3-5 July, 2020) — Millwall 42% chance of beating Charlton in East-ish London derby

The table below gives the Model’s forecasts for Round 41 of the English Championship, adjusted for the fact these matches are taking place behind closed doors, along with forecast probabilities estimated from current online bookmaker odds.

Forecasts Championship R41 July 2020, RED
  • Expected Goals: the forecast average number of goals the Model expects for Home and Away teams
  • Outcome Probs: the model predicted % chance of either a Home or Away win, with 100 minus these two numbers being the % chance of a draw.
  • Score Picks: the Most likely forecast scoreline outcome, as well as the most likely conditional on the most likely result outcome happening.
  • Home wins / Draws / Away wins: the predicted % chance of various potential scoreline outcomes of the match.
  • Mean odds: Estimates of online bookmakers’ average probability forecasts for the Home and Away teams to win, which could be compared with Outcome Probs.

Premier League, R33 (4-6 July) — Man U have 72% chance of toppling Cherries

The table below gives the Model’s forecasts for Round 33 of the Premier League, adjusted for the fact these matches are taking place behind closed doors, along with forecast probabilities estimated from current online bookmaker odds.

Forecasts EPL R33 July 2020, RED
  • Expected Goals: the forecast average number of goals the Model expects for Home and Away teams
  • Outcome Probs: the model predicted % chance of either a Home or Away win, with 100 minus these two numbers being the % chance of a draw.
  • Score Picks: the Most likely forecast scoreline outcome, as well as the most likely conditional on the most likely result outcome happening.
  • Home wins / Draws / Away wins: the predicted % chance of various potential scoreline outcomes of the match.
  • Mean odds: Estimates of online bookmakers’ average probabbility forecasts for the Home and Away teams to win, which could be compared with Outcome Probs.

Premier League, R32-Part 1 (27-29 Jun) — Wolves to take advantage of playing in an empty stadium, with 48% chance of win at Villa Park

The table below gives the Model’s forecasts for Round 32 of the Premier League, adjusted for the fact these matches are taking place behind closed doors, along with forecast probabilities estimated from current online bookmaker odds.

EPL Forecasts Part 1 R32, 2020, RED
  • Expected Goals: the forecast average number of goals the Model expects for Home and Away teams
  • Outcome Probs: the model predicted % chance of either a Home or Away win, with 100 minus these two numbers being the % chance of a draw.
  • Score Picks: the Most likely forecast scoreline outcome, as well as the most likely conditional on the most likely result outcome happening.
  • Home wins / Draws / Away wins: the predicted % chance of various potential scoreline outcomes of the match.
  • Mean odds: Estimates of online bookmakers’ average probabbility forecasts for the Home and Away teams to win, which could be compared with Outcome Probs.

Championship, R39 (26-28 Jun, 2020) — Brentford 39% chance of a win with reduced home advantage tonight against Baggies.

The table below gives the Model’s forecasts for Round 39 of the English Championship, adjusted for the fact these matches are taking place behind closed doors, along with forecast probabilities estimated from current online bookmaker odds.

Forecasts Championship R39 2020, RED
  • Expected Goals: the forecast average number of goals the Model expects for Home and Away teams
  • Outcome Probs: the model predicted % chance of either a Home or Away win, with 100 minus these two numbers being the % chance of a draw.
  • Score Picks: the Most likely forecast scoreline outcome, as well as the most likely conditional on the most likely result outcome happening.
  • Home wins / Draws / Away wins: the predicted % chance of various potential scoreline outcomes of the match.
  • Mean odds: Estimates of online bookmakers’ average probability forecasts for the Home and Away teams to win, which could be compared with Outcome Probs.