A fixture with little more than Cup history, really. Three FA Cup visits in 22 years, one EFL Trophy visit, and two league trips. The league trip in 2003 was tasty with multiple red cards. In all that time, just one defeat for Oldham – the EFL Trophy visit in 2017.
It’s not impossible that that might carry on, given both teams have flattered to deceive this season. But the bookies rightly favour Mansfield (49%), while RED does with a little less fervour (44%). It looks like it’ll be tight. 1-0 for the home team is at 12%, Oldham to steal it 0-1 is 9.4%.
Hit by the international break, there are only eight games in League One this week. The big boys Ipswich, Wycombe and Sunderland get a break. With the exception of Rotherham at Blackpool, the basement battle between Southend and Wimbledon, and the Lancastrian derby between Rochdale and Accrington, these are mainly home bankers.
Another week, another tough match. Dino Maamria’s third in charge of Oldham sees in-form Cheltenham Town arrive at Boundary Park. Despite Cheltenham being unbeaten in five, picking up 13 of 15 points available, and being in third place with more than twice as many points as Oldham, the bookmakers still make Oldham favourites, 39% to 33%.
RED reflects a little better the current disparity between the teams a little better, putting Cheltenham at 41% to win.
Thus far in these spotlight features, past fixture history has meant a lot. Oldham lost at Carlisle, expected given past form there, and they got results at Scunthorpe and Plymouth when they might not have been expected to, perhaps due to good past form at those place.
The past history of this fixture is three wins for each team. Last season Oldham won 2-0. There’s a mere 5.3% chance of that happening this time out…
Oxford United are all of a sudden in a Man City-esque run of form. In five matches they’ve scored 16 goals and conceded none, only dropping two points.
Can they carry on their barnstorming run at Accrington? RED thinks they have a 45.4 chance, slightly more than the bookmakers at 42%. It may not be quite so high scoring this week; a 2-0 win is at 7.5%.
It’s another weekend of football all across Europe, which has already begun in France and Germany. RED has posted its forecasts. Bundesliga, La Liga, Ligue 1 and Serie A.
Reflecting the lack of balance in the Premier League, Bayern Munich’s visitors Hoffenheim have just a 6.2% chance of winning according to RED, 4.3% according to the bookmakers. In Ligue 1, the bookies give PSG’s visitors Angers just a 6.9% chance, although RED gives them a 27.1% chance.
Reading lie just above the relegation zone. So unsurprisingly the Model makes them underdogs away to Bristol City, with just a 21% chance of a win, and expected to score only 0.93 goals, compared with 1.67 for Bristol. The most likely outcome in this match is 1-0 (10.3%).
The Model gives Wolves just a 5.4% chance of beating Man City away this weekend. The bookies are even more pessimistic about their chances, suggesting only a 4.5% chance that Wolves will overcome the Champions. Such uncompetitive fixtures were rare before the Premier League and the sheikhs arrived. There are lessons throughout sporting history whereby a lack of competitive balance destroyed the popularity of sports. Fans want to see a contest. Anyway… [Good luck to Wolves in making the Model and the Bookies look silly!]