Scorecasting Economists

Premier League 30 11 21

Premier League Midweek 30 11 21 – 2 12 21

 

Midweek Premier League games are a fairly rare thing this side of Christmas, unless there is a game postponed.

Usually they are reserved for whatever the League Cup is now called or for European games. This week though we get a full-set, unless it snows again.

Our model (see table above, Outcome Probs) predicts a 1-1 draw for all but three of the games as the most likely score. On the fact of it, this looks like it shows the closeness of the league.

There are three games that aren’t showing as a likely, 1-1. The first is, Villa v Man City, where we favour Man City at 56.6%, with bookmakers mean odds giving City a much higher percentage chance of a win at 70.7%. Steven Gerrard may have done a bit to help Villa since joining but apparently, Man City are in an ’emergency’ according to the BBC. None of this really seems to have affected the likelihood of Man City winning.

Most likely score: 0-1

The other two are, Watford v Chelsea (we favour Chelsea at 62%, bookmakers mean odds 71.5%) and West Ham at home to Brighton, where our model favours West Ham at 58.6% but bookmakers have them just below 50%.

Most likely scores:

0-2 (Watford v Chelsea)

1-0 (West Ham v Brighton)

In tonight’s games our model and bookmakers mean odds each produce almost exactly the same percentage for a Newcastle win at 48.2 to  48% against Norwich. Leeds v Crystal Palace has a bigger gap between our model and bookmakers odds, with our model more heavily favouring Leeds at 47.1%. I expect we are slightly overestimating Leeds here who are 17th compared to Palace in 11th.

I suspect we are also overestimating Everton‘s chances of a win at 21.6% against Liverpool in the Merseyside derby (bookmakers have them at just 12.7%) and personally I think a 1-1 draw is  the most likely result for Man Utd v Arsenal (our model agrees but favours Man Utd at 44.4%).

 

 

Premier League 27 11 21

Premier League 27 11 21

 

Arsenal v Newcastle United

Our table below doesn’t yet include the 3 UEFA League/Conference teams as we update based on immediate past results and haven’t collected these yet (*updated model now shows below the original one*)

Today, Arsenal play Newcastle after a 4-0 defeat against Liverpool last weekend. Newcastle on the other hand have Eddie Howe as their new manager after a negative Covid test (he was technically manager last weekend but was unable to attend due to testing positive at the time). It doesn’t look good for Newcastle, as Arsenal have most of their squad fit.

Arsenal are 5th, Newcastle are currently in last place and our likely winners are Arsenal at 63.7% (see table below in Outcome Probs). Bookmakers Mean Odds are only 1.5% higher, so it looks pretty likely for an Arsenal win. A 2-0 exact score is 11.2% likely with a 1-0 11.1% likely. Personally I’ll be quite surprised if Arsenal don’t win this.

Most likely score: 2-0 – amusingly, the BBC also have Lawro predicting the same thing

(*I actually watched this and I think Arsenal could have had more but everyone got the 2-0 right).

 

Chelsea v Manchester United

This match takes on greater significance now Man Utd have sacked Ole Gunnar Solskjaer and almost finished appointing Ralf Rangnick (he is ‘set to be appointed’ at the moment) .

It doesn’t exactly improve Man Utd’s chances though – again our model and bookmakers mean odds have just 1.5% between them in terms of picking the likely winners. Chelsea (between 61.5-59.9%). Both teams won in the Champions League in midweek but Man Utd were slow to get going against Villareal, I thought.

Most likely score: 1-0

Elsewhere the model’s likely winners odds are also pretty close to bookmakers mean odds, except for Brentford v Everton where we have the two teams closer (between 3% on likely winners). Bookmakers favour Brentford at 42.5% though.

English Championship 26 11 2021

English Championship 26 11 2021

 

More football tonight in the Championship with West Brom v Nottingham Forest at 8pm. I’ve been at a conference all day and it finished late, so am typing this at the point this match is now at half-time.

This is one of those Championship fixtures that I look at and feel slightly nostalgic as when I was growing up in the early 80’s it would have been in the old Division One (now the Premier League).

The most likely score though is a 1-0 home win for West Brom (see model below). We have West Brom at 54% to win with bookmakers mean odds agreeing with us (only 2% higher).

So, instead of nostalgia, looking back slightly less far back to midweek, I just thought I would have a quick look at how we did in terms of predictions.

The big one we got wrong was Fulham v Derby which ended 0-0. It did feel as though there was a better chance of an upset than either our odds or bookmakers means odds gave but it still came as a surprise. Fulham were between 76-73% to win, one of the highest chances to win we’ve had so far this season. Another one the model could hardly predict was Blackburn winning 4-0 against Preston. That said it did give just under 50% chance of a Blackburn win, with bookmakers having them at 56% to win.

One we did get right was the 1-1 between Millwall v Bournemouth where we had an exact 1-1 as 12.6% likely to occur.

So what will happen this weekend?

Logically you’d think if Preston shipped four goals to Blackburn, they won’t fancy their chances against Fulham who were thwarted by Derby in mid-week. Well… Our model predicts a 1-1 draw with Preston having a 22% chance to win. a 1-1 is 11.2% likely as an exact score, with a 0-1 away win for Fulham at 10.4% exact

Speaking of Derby, for some reason the Championship is spread over 4 days this weekend and they play yet another in-form team, Queens Park Rangers on Monday night. After a win and draw against past league leaders, they might just fancy their chances against 4th placed QPR. Our model sort of agrees, in that it gives them a decent chance of a draw. We favour QPR in our model as likely winners at 38% but Derby are only just behind on 34%. Bookmakers mean odds have a slightly bigger margin between the two teams but not much (7% instead of 4%).

 

Championship 23 11 2021

English Championship 23/11/21-24/11/21

 

Fulham v Derby County

Is there any chance for Derby against high-scoring, table-topping Fulham?

Well yes, actually but probably less than 10%, as we give them an 8.8% chance of an away win, with bookmakers mean odds coming in at 9.2%. Fulham are on an expected goals of 2.55 compared to Derby’s 0.75.

One thing you can say though, is that if it wasn’t for their points deductions they would certainly not be bottom of the league. In fact you have to go all the way up the table to 9th placed Millwall to find a similarly mean defence.

Derby haven’t exactly been scoring much (16 in 18 games) but have only let in 18. They beat Bournemouth at the weekend and our model gave them just over a 20% chance of doing that so they may just beat today’s odds too.

Most likely score: 2-0

Millwall v Bournemouth

After Derby beat Bournemouth at the weekend, Millwall must also fancy their chances. Trouble is, despite losing to Derby, Bournemouth have the best defence in the league currently. Unlike Derby, Millwall are in with a shout, according to our model – giving them over 30% change of a win (compared to 27.5 with bookmakers mean odds).

Most likely score: 1-1

Elsewhere, our model matches to within a few percentage point of bookmakers mean odds, except for Blackpool v West Brom. The outcome isn’t exactly different as such, both our model and bookmakers favour West Brom, it is the extent of the difference in the odds.

There is a 10% increase in the likelihood of West Brom winning with bookmakers mean odds, but Blackpool also drop by 10% as likely winners. This could be due to our model including home advantage, it may also be that their expected goals are both very similar (just 0.05% difference).

 

Premier League 20/11/21

English Premier League 20 November 2021

 

The Premier League returns this weekend with Leicester v Chelsea as the lunchtime kick-off. Leicester haven’t quite been consistent in the league so far this season so the home game against Chelsea looks fairly tough, especially as Chelsea are still top of the league.

We have this game with the most likely score of 1-1. However, bookmakers mean odds (see table below) have a Chelsea win at 53.6% and our model still favours them at 48.6%. There are a lot of 1-1 draws predicted this weekend, which is more usual for the Championship rather than Premier League.

Most likely score: 1-1

Newcastle v Brentford will be probably of more interest than it would have been a month ago. This is Eddie Howe’s first game as manager of Newcastle. Our model favours Newcastle at 42.3% with bookmakers having just 1% between the two teams (36.3-35.3%). New manager bounce? Well not much is expected, at least, unless a draw counts!

I see Mark Lawrenson on the BBC thinks Newcastle will win 2-0  but personally I can’t see a drastic turnaround in Newcastle’s fortunes without better players.

Most likely score: 1-1

A game to watch will be Liverpool v Arsenal. Liverpool lost their last game before the international break, whereas Arsenal have now won their last three matches. Will this be enough to stop Liverpool?

Our model favours Liverpool at 56.7% and although it predicts a 1-1 draw as the most likely score, there really isn’t much between that and a 1-0 home win with both exact scores being 10.8% likely. Bookmaker mean odds do favour Liverpool even more than us though at 64.7%.

Most likely score: 1-1

Championship 19/11/21

English Championship 19 November 2021

 

Championship football returns after what feels like quite a long international break.

QPR v Luton

QPR are 6th so are currently in the play-off positions. Luton are 11th but only 2 points behind QPR. We have this game with 1-1 as the most likely score but both our model and bookmakers mean odds favour QPR (see table below).

In terms of exact scores a 1-1 draw is 12.5% likely but a 1-0 home win is 12.2% likely according to our model, clearly showing how close it is between a draw and a home win.

Elsewhere in the league, Reading‘s point deduction takes them perilously close to the relegation places so a win against Nottingham Forest might help. With our model it is a similar tale to the QPR v Luton game in terms of odds, and most likely scores.

It is however, one of the matches where our predictions do not match bookmakers mean odds, with bookmakers favouring Forest instead of Reading, by nearly 40%.

Derby have also had additional points deducted and their misery is quite likely to be added to, as they play top of the table Bournemouth. With home advantage factored into the model, it gives Derby 22.5% to win, with them just creeping into 1 on expected goals. The most likely score however is still a 0-1 away win for Bournemouth. Bookmakers mean odds for Bournemouth winning have just 0.2% between them and our model’s predicted likely winner.

Fulham v Barnsley has Fulham winning 2-0 and there is under 2% between our model and bookmakers mean odds in terms of how likely this is – we have Fulham at 72.8% to win, with bookmakers on 74. This level of certainty has really not happened much in Championship games so far this season. Fulham are also on just below 2.5 expected goals. The way Fulham are outscoring everyone, if they can maintain that you’d surely expect them to be promoted.

 

 

Championship 6 November 2021

Championship 6 November 2021

Peterborough v Fulham

This is the first game to catch my eye this evening. It has the highest odds in our model for a likely winner and also is the only game with a 2-1 away win as the most likely score. This is in part down to Fulham’s amazing scoring record so far this season. They won 7-0 in mid-week and have 43 goals so far this season, 16 more than anyone else. Peterborough have the worst defensive record in the league, letting in 31 goals so far so this doesn’t look at all good for them. A 2-1 away exact score is 9.9% likely.

We have them at a 63.7% chance of winning with bookmakers mean odds just over 1% less than that. If Fulham can maintain this form and momentum you’d have to expect them to return to the Premier League.

Compared to earlier in the season, the differences in our odds for likely winners and losers are now generally closer to bookmakers mean odds. The differences are more often than not in the percentage confidence for a winning team rather than a completely different outcome showing. There is just 5% between our model and bookmakers for West Brom to win and 8% for Barnsley at home to Hull for instance.

Blackpool v QPR

Blackpool v QPR is one game where there is an actual difference in the team favoured but still by only 8% difference. We favour Blackpool at 41.5% with bookmakers on 33.2%, whereas we have QPR at 32% and their mean odds show 38.5%.

 

 

 

 

Premier League 5-7 November 2021

 Premier League

Premier League football returns tonight after the midweek European matches.

Southampton v Aston Villa

Southampton play Aston Villa on Friday night and neither team has gotten off to a great start to the season. Villa have lost their last four games, whilst Southampton’s form has taken a turn in the opposite direction with two wins and draw in the last three. Our model has this as a 1-1 draw and favours Southampton, with bookmakers mean odds only just over 1% higher than our 45% confidence.

Chelsea v Burnley

Chelsea are very likely to win this (78% in our model). Again there is only just over 1% between our favoured winner and bookmakers mean odds. The most likely score here is 2-0 to Chelsea. Chelsea have won their last 4 league games with Burnley managing just one in the league all season, although that was their last match.

Everton v Tottenham

One game where there is a difference between our model and bookmakers mean odds is this match. We favour Everton at 46% (and with over 1.5 expected goals).

Everton have actually lost one more game in a row than Tottenham recently, have scored 7 more goals over the season so far and are at home. Bookmakers slightly favour Tottenham (and probably rightly so). This may well be for factors that our model doesn’t currently take into account – like a manager change.

Tottenham were somewhat fortunate yesterday against Vitesse Arnhem, with 3 sending’s off in the game but with new manager Conte’s first Premier League game, it does seem reasonable to expect some changes to Tottenham’s form in the coming weeks. Our model predicts a 1-1 draw.

Man Utd v Man City

Man Utd managed a win last weekend but prior to that were beginning to fall away in the title race. Our model favours Man City at 47% with bookmakers more confident with their mean odds at 56%. Can Ronaldo rescue Man Utd, yet again, with Varane out Man Utd’s defence will potentially be a bit shaky? We have a 1-1 draw as the most likely result but conditional on a win occurring we have Man City winning 2-1 away.

English Championship Midweek 2 November 2021

English Championship Midweek 2 November 2021

 

As we start November, the Championship midweek games continue tonight and tomorrow.

We have a bottom of the table clash with Barnsley v Derby County. Barnsley were one of the surprise teams last season, supposedly using data to maximise performance from players and it also was supposed to matter less whom the manager was, as part of their overall strategy.

Derby will fancy their chances, however, as Barnsley have just sacked the latest manager, not least because Barnsley last got a point 7 games ago. Our model says Derby’s chances aren’t that great though (27.5%, compared to bookmakers mean odds having them at 21.5%). The most likely score is a 1-1 draw at 12.1% likely, with a 1-0 Barnsley win at 11.5, so home advantage and a different manager could be key.

Elsewhere in the league it would be hard to go against Bournemouth winning against Preston (nearly 60% chance of a Bournemouth win).

West Brom also look pretty likely to win against a Hull City side that are in the relegation places, they have a 64% chance of a win (the highest odds from our model), with a 1-0 exact score 12.5% likely and a 2-0 home win also at 12.2%. Bookmakers pretty much agree with us within 1-3% on these two matches.

Millwall probably fancy their changes at home to Reading who have lost 3 games in a row and our model predicts misery for Reading being not far from 50% likely (48.2) with bookmakers again within around 3% of those odds.

One game that might be quite close is Blackburn v Fulham, Ben Brereton-Diaz caught the eye in the Summer at the Copa America for Chile and is currently Blackburn top scorer with 10 goals in 11 games, against a Fulham side that are currently outscoring everyone in the Championship. Fulham have 10 more goals than the next-highest scorers, Bournemouth. Fulham’s higher scoring is reflected in their higher expected goals 1.66 to 1.27 and although bookmakers mean odds are very similar to our most likely winner, a 1-1 draw is also the most likely score here.

Premier League 30 10 2021

Premier League – last weekend in October

From the weekend’s fixtures, one game stands out for me in particular and that’s Tottenham v Man Utd.

Both teams are underperforming this season. Tottenham are sixth in the table but actually have a -4 goal difference, having scored just 9 goals all season in the league.

Only Brighton, one place above them and Wolves have the same poor scoring record in the top half of the table.

Brighton, only one place ahead can be said to be overperforming compared to expectations though. Man Utd on the other hand, for a team that was realistically able to outspend or at least compete with the league’s highest spenders are clearly not doing very well in 7th. How long either manager has left to correct things remains to be seen but for both teams the poor run of form can’t go on for too long.

At the start of the season virtually every prediction model and pundit had a top four of Man City, Chelsea, Liverpool and Man Utd (not necessarily in that order). The first three are are the top three with Man Utd the only serious underperformer.

In the table below you can see that our model favours Tottenham (we have home advantage included in our model), at 43% to win. With Man Utd on just 31%. The most likely score by far though is a 1-1 draw at 12.2% as an exact score.

Bookmakers Mean Odds (in the far column) show Man Utd as marginally favoured on 40.5% so almost the opposite of our model. All in all, with two out of form teams playing each other a draw does seem a realistic outcome.

The other game that looks quite interesting is the lunchtime kick off with Leicester v Arsenal. This also looks close. Our model slightly favours Leicester at 40%, with bookmakers having just 1.5% less confidence than that. Both teams have shown signs of improvement in recent weeks.

In fact overall, there is really not a great deal of difference in our model and bookmakers mean odds this week. With matches like Liverpool v Brighton and Man City v Palace favouring the home teams at over 75% minimum likelihood, it’s not surprising.