RED is distracted since the international break has put paid to the Premier League, Championship and the Football League’s basement battle between Stevenage and Oldham. Here are the lower league forecasts, though not all the matches listed are taking place due to international call ups…
Have Leicester replaced Manchester Utd in the Premier League’s “top 6” sides? The Foxes certainly get value for money, compared with the distinct lack of value in the League’s most successful club’s current team. This weekend Leicester host Arsenal in a game that could well make a difference in the race for Champions League qualification come the end of the season. The home side are the favourites according to the Model, with 1.5 expected goals and a 45% chance of a win, though the most likely scoreline is 1-1 (12%), followed by 1-0 (10%). The result outcome predictions are similar to what the average of the odds among bookmakers suggests — the bookmakers have learned their lesson when it comes to underestimating and paying out big on Leicester.
Demonstrating our complete impartiality and scientific rigour when it comes to football forecasting, despite whatever biases we, the creators, might naturally have, the model actually predicts Nottingham Forest will beat Derby County in the A52 (Brian Clough Way) rivalry. The Model expects Forest to score 1.6 goals to Derby’s 1.1. Forest have a 48% chance of a win, compared with 27% for Derby. The chances implied by bookmaker odds are very similar, marginally making Forest less the favourites than the Model does. The most likely scoreline outcome of the game is 1-1 (12%), closely followed by a 1-0 home win (11%).
What’s in an abbreviation? Each game week, RED goes up against Jean-Louis Foulley, and we’ve realised we don’t have the same abbreviations for clubs. Should it be MCI, or MNC, for Man City? ATM or ATL for Atletico Madrid?
Either way, alas RED is still facing the same technical issues that beset it on the weekend when posting graphics. See Twitter (@seconomists) for the tables with the forecasts.
Sunderland aren’t ripping up trees this season in League One. But surely they won’t fail against abject Southend, with their single win and two draws from fifteen matches, right? RED gives them a 63.4% chance of winning, with 2-0 at 11.8%.
In League Two, there’s a local derby match. It’s not a Potteries derby, and it’s not a Cheshire derby. What is it? It’s Crewe, league leaders, vs 11th placed Port Vale. The form book may go out of the window, and if so then RED’s 50.3% probability for Crewe to win is meaningless. As is the 12.3% chance of a narrow home win…
Barnsley host Bristol City tonight in the Friday evening championship kick-off. The University of Reading’s “Super” computer, a.k.a. RED, predicts that Barnsley are favourites in this fixture, with a 48% chance of a win, compared with just 26% for Bristol. This contrasts with the bookmakers, who on average make Bristol slight favourites. Barnsley, on average, are expected to score 1.5 goals, compared with 1 for Bristol, and the most likely outcome of the match is 1-1, expecting to occur 12 times if this match were actually played 100 times.
Halloween may be past us, but that won’t make this weekend any less scary for Southampton fans. After conceding 9 at home last time out, they travel to Manchester City this weekend. Apply any logic, and City will surely score more than 9? The bookies certainly think Southampton have no chance, with the chance of an away implied by their odds just 3%. The Model perhaps gives less weight to the potential outlier of last weekend, and gives Southampton a healthy 9% chance of a win. City are expected to score 2.8 goals to Southampton’s 0.7, and the most likely scoreline outcome is 2-0 (12%).
Will tomorrow be different? Like Mansfield, Port Vale hasn’t been the worst away trip for Oldham over the last twenty years or so. One defeat in over a decade. However, that was the same record Oldham had at Mansfield.
One oddity about tomorrow’s match – it does look like there may be goals. A 2-1 win for either side (8.6% and 8.2% respectively) is more likely than a 1-0 win (7,4%, 7.1%). A 1-1 draw is, of course, most likely…