This afternoon sees the second ever visit of Forest Green to Oldham. Last season the match yielded no goals as both teams were seeking to push higher up the table. This season, Forest Green couldn’t be in worse form, and Oldham come into it off the back of a 5-1 humbling at Exeter on Tuesday.
It’s testament to Forest Green’s start that despite picking up one point of the last 18 available, and 14 from the last 51, they’re still nine points and nine positions better off than Oldham.
Oldham have home advantage, and have been in good home form of late, with a 3-0 and 3-1 win in their last two home matches, and have only lost once at home since early October (W4, D3).
A classic 1-1 draw is most likely – 12.4%. Oldham to nick it by a goal (1-0, 2-1, 3-2) is at 23%.
The Elo rating history of the two sides is revealing. Forest Green have been moving up the leagues in recent years, while Oldham stagnated in League One before falling into League Two in 2018. This season had looked good for Forest Green and bad for Oldham at the start, but the Elo rating of the two has merged in recent weeks.
Action in Leagues One and Two this weekend. Can Bolton keep their minuscule chances of avoiding relegation alive at home against Wycombe? A fighting 1-0 for the Trotters in the Wanderers’ Derby is 9.3%.
Based on 1,000 simulations of the University of Reading’s Scorecasting Model to the end of the season, the below table shows the % chance of each English Football League Championship team finishing in positions 1-24.
Based on all matches and results up to and including 13/2/2020
Derby travel to Bristol City tomorrow night. The table below provides various statistics about the match up, as well as the outputs of the Scorecasting Model.
Inspired by Wayne, Derby’s form has ticked up, and the Rams have a decent chance of beating Bristol (34%), though the home side remain slight favourites (40%). The bookies, through their odds, are a little bit more pessimistic about Derby’s chances, however.
On ELO rating, due to recent form, Derby are ranked the stronger team than Bristol right now, despite being 6 places and 7 points behind in the league, though Bristol still have the not insignificant home advantage.
Based on 1000 simulations of the Model from now to the end of the season, Derby are now being given a delightful 10% chance of making the Playoffs, when just a few weeks ago this chance was next to zero. Light the beacons! Hope is kindled!
Suddenly, Oldham are bang in form. Seven without a win a week ago, six unbeaten this week after two three-goal wins in a week. But Crewe are another matter entirely, sitting handsomely in second place. RED gives them a 50.5% chance of going up (see below). Oldham are just happy that their chances of relegation have fallen to a mere 0.4% after their recent run.
The recent past at Gresty Road has been reasonably happy for Oldham. But it’s hard to really see anything other than a home win tomorrow.