Scorecasting Economists

Premier League, R12 (8-10 Nov) — Have bookmakers learned their lesson when it comes to underestimating Leicester?

Have Leicester replaced Manchester Utd in the Premier League’s “top 6” sides? The Foxes certainly get value for money, compared with the distinct lack of value in the League’s most successful club’s current team. This weekend Leicester host Arsenal in a game that could well make a difference in the race for Champions League qualification come the end of the season. The home side are the favourites according to the Model, with 1.5 expected goals and a 45% chance of a win, though the most likely scoreline is 1-1 (12%), followed by 1-0 (10%). The result outcome predictions are similar to what the average of the odds among bookmakers suggests — the bookmakers have learned their lesson when it comes to underestimating and paying out big on Leicester.

The table below gives the rest of the  Model’s forecasts for Round 12 of the Premier League, along with forecast probabilities estimated from current online bookmaker odds.

R12 forecasts, Prem 2019, RED
  • Expected Goals: the forecast average number of goals the Model expects for Home and Away teams
  • Outcome Probs: the model predicted % chance of either a Home or Away win, with 100 minus these two numbers being the % chance of a draw.
  • Score Picks: the Most likely forecast scoreline outcome, as well as the most likely conditional on the most likely result outcome happening.
  • Home wins / Draws / Away wins: the predicted % chance of various potential scoreline outcomes of the match.
  • Mean odds: Estimates of online bookmakers’ average probability forecasts for the Home and Away teams to win, which could be compared with Outcome Probs.

Championship, R16 (9-10 Nov, 2019) — Forest expected to beat Derby… As if!!!

Demonstrating our complete impartiality and scientific rigour when it comes to football forecasting, despite whatever biases we, the creators, might naturally have, the model actually predicts Nottingham Forest will beat Derby County in the A52 (Brian Clough Way) rivalry. The Model expects Forest to score 1.6 goals to Derby’s 1.1. Forest have a 48% chance of a win, compared with 27% for Derby. The chances implied by bookmaker odds are very similar, marginally making Forest less the favourites than the Model does. The most likely scoreline outcome of the game is 1-1 (12%), closely followed by a 1-0 home win (11%).

The table below gives the rest of the Model’s forecasts for Round 16 of the English Championship, along with forecast probabilities estimated from current online bookmaker odds.

R16 forecasts, Champ 2019, RED
  • Expected Goals: the forecast average number of goals the Model expects for Home and Away teams
  • Outcome Probs: the model predicted % chance of either a Home or Away win, with 100 minus these two numbers being the % chance of a draw.
  • Score Picks: the Most likely forecast scoreline outcome, as well as the most likely conditional on the most likely result outcome happening.
  • Home wins / Draws / Away wins: the predicted % chance of various potential scoreline outcomes of the match.
  • Mean odds: Estimates of online bookmakers’ average probability forecasts for the Home and Away teams to win, which could be compared with Outcome Probs.

Champions League, Gameweek 4, November 6-7

What’s in an abbreviation? Each game week, RED goes up against Jean-Louis Foulley, and we’ve realised we don’t have the same abbreviations for clubs. Should it be MCI, or MNC, for Man City? ATM or ATL for Atletico Madrid?

Either way, alas RED is still facing the same technical issues that beset it on the weekend when posting graphics. See Twitter (@seconomists) for the tables with the forecasts.

 

Lower Leagues, Round 17, November 1

Sunderland aren’t ripping up trees this season in League One. But surely they won’t fail against abject Southend, with their single win and two draws from fifteen matches, right? RED gives them a 63.4% chance of winning, with 2-0 at 11.8%.

In League Two, there’s a local derby match. It’s not a Potteries derby, and it’s not a Cheshire derby. What is it? It’s Crewe, league leaders, vs 11th placed Port Vale. The form book may go out of the window, and if so then RED’s 50.3% probability for Crewe to win is meaningless. As is the 12.3% chance of a narrow home win…

Championship, R15 (1-4 Nov, 2019) — Barnsley favourites against Bristol City tonight according to “Super” computer, despite what the betting markets say

Barnsley host Bristol City tonight in the Friday evening championship kick-off. The University of Reading’s “Super” computer, a.k.a. RED, predicts that Barnsley are favourites in this fixture, with a 48% chance of a win, compared with just 26% for Bristol. This contrasts with the bookmakers, who on average make Bristol slight favourites. Barnsley, on average, are expected to score 1.5 goals, compared with 1 for Bristol, and the most likely outcome of the match is 1-1, expecting to occur 12 times if this match were actually played 100 times.

The table below gives the rest of the Model’s forecasts for Round 15 of the English Championship, along with forecast probabilities estimated from current online bookmaker odds.

  • Expected Goals: the forecast average number of goals the Model expects for Home and Away teams
  • Outcome Probs: the model predicted % chance of either a Home or Away win, with 100 minus these two numbers being the % chance of a draw.
  • Score Picks: the Most likely forecast scoreline outcome, as well as the most likely conditional on the most likely result outcome happening.
  • Home wins / Draws / Away wins: the predicted % chance of various potential scoreline outcomes of the match.
  • Mean odds: Estimates of online bookmakers’ average probability forecasts for the Home and Away teams to win, which could be compared with Outcome Probs.

Premier League, R11 (2-3 Nov) — Another scary weekend for Southampton fans?

Halloween may be past us, but that won’t make this weekend any less scary for Southampton fans. After conceding 9 at home last time out, they travel to Manchester City this weekend. Apply any logic, and City will surely score more than 9? The bookies certainly think Southampton have no chance, with the chance of an away implied by their odds just 3%. The Model perhaps gives less weight to the potential outlier of last weekend, and gives Southampton a healthy 9% chance of a win. City are expected to score 2.8 goals to Southampton’s 0.7, and the most likely scoreline outcome is 2-0 (12%).

The table below gives the rest of the  Model’s forecasts for Round 11 of the Premier League, along with forecast probabilities estimated from current online bookmaker odds.

  • Expected Goals: the forecast average number of goals the Model expects for Home and Away teams
  • Outcome Probs: the model predicted % chance of either a Home or Away win, with 100 minus these two numbers being the % chance of a draw.
  • Score Picks: the Most likely forecast scoreline outcome, as well as the most likely conditional on the most likely result outcome happening.
  • Home wins / Draws / Away wins: the predicted % chance of various potential scoreline outcomes of the match.
  • Mean odds: Estimates of online bookmakers’ average probability forecasts for the Home and Away teams to win, which could be compared with Outcome Probs.

Championship, R14 (26-28 Oct, 2019) — Retrospective… (We forgot last week!)

The table below gives the Model’s forecasts for Round 14 of the English Championship, a little bit late…, along with forecast probabilities estimated from current online bookmaker odds.

Champ forecasts R14 2019, RED
  • Expected Goals: the forecast average number of goals the Model expects for Home and Away teams
  • Outcome Probs: the model predicted % chance of either a Home or Away win, with 100 minus these two numbers being the % chance of a draw.
  • Score Picks: the Most likely forecast scoreline outcome, as well as the most likely conditional on the most likely result outcome happening.
  • Home wins / Draws / Away wins: the predicted % chance of various potential scoreline outcomes of the match.
  • Mean odds: Estimates of online bookmakers’ average probability forecasts for the Home and Away teams to win, which could be compared with Outcome Probs.

More than eight?!

On Friday night, Leicester destroyed Southampton 9-0 at St Mary’s. An away team scoring NINE goals. RED doesn’t even provide probabilities for teams scoring nine, it happens that infrequently.

But just how infrequently? Well, in the English leagues, that was just the seventh time it’s happened. Here are the other occurrences:

Seven times in more than a century of football. A truly rare event.

Spotlight on… Oldham Athletic

A win is a win – particularly after the drubbing Oldham took the last time they travelled away from Boundary Park.

Will tomorrow be different? Like Mansfield, Port Vale hasn’t been the worst away trip for Oldham over the last twenty years or so. One defeat in over a decade. However, that was the same record Oldham had at Mansfield.

One oddity about tomorrow’s match – it does look like there may be goals. A 2-1 win for either side (8.6% and 8.2% respectively) is more likely than a 1-0 win (7,4%, 7.1%). A 1-1 draw is, of course, most likely…