Scorecasting Economists

Championship, R38 (13-15 Mar, 2020) — Lots of people will catch Covid19, and some football will be played

The table below gives the Model’s forecasts for Round 38 of the English Championship, along with forecast probabilities estimated from current online bookmaker odds.

EFL Champs, R38 2020, RED
  • Expected Goals: the forecast average number of goals the Model expects for Home and Away teams
  • Outcome Probs: the model predicted % chance of either a Home or Away win, with 100 minus these two numbers being the % chance of a draw.
  • Score Picks: the Most likely forecast scoreline outcome, as well as the most likely conditional on the most likely result outcome happening.
  • Home wins / Draws / Away wins: the predicted % chance of various potential scoreline outcomes of the match.
  • Mean odds: Estimates of online bookmakers’ average probability forecasts for the Home and Away teams to win, which could be compared with Outcome Probs.

Champions League Last 16 Second Legs

We enter into a rather unique spell in European football at the moment, with domestic football in Italy suspended for the foreseeable future due to coronavirus, and many other matches being played behind closed doors – including two this evening, in Valencia in Spain, and in Paris in France, two countries with over a thousand cases of the virus.

Our Model is a bit under the weather it seems, unable to determine which four matches take place this week, and which ones next week. So there are some early forecasts for the games in Manchester, Barcelona and Munich (assuming they take place next week).

As always, we go up against Jean-Louis Foulley, whose forecasts are posted in the second table. We agree which team is favourite in each match, but disagree a little on the strength of Atalanta as they travel to Valencia.

Spotlight on… Oldham Athletic

Well, Oldham haven’t had twelve points deducted. It’s really not all that clear whether this is necessarily as good a news story as it might sound. Things are never simple. But things move back to the field now, and Oldham visit Crawley tomorrow. With the absence of a points deduction, Oldham’s season really is over. 0% chance of promotion, the play offs, or relegation. Crawley have the faintest of faint hopes of the play offs.

So, early in March, we have a meaningless fixture. It’s only the fifth fixture between the teams at Crawley, with two wins for the hosts, and one (last season) for the Latics. Crawley are on a solid run of form, and Oldham won 5-0 last weekend. What will happen tomorrow? See the graphics below…

Premier League, R29 (7-9 Mar) — Model gives Liverpool 79% chance of getting back to winning ways against Bournemouth

The table below gives the Model’s forecasts for Round 29 of the Premier League, along with forecast probabilities estimated from current online bookmaker odds.

EPL forecasts R29 2020, RED
  • Expected Goals: the forecast average number of goals the Model expects for Home and Away teams
  • Outcome Probs: the model predicted % chance of either a Home or Away win, with 100 minus these two numbers being the % chance of a draw.
  • Score Picks: the Most likely forecast scoreline outcome, as well as the most likely conditional on the most likely result outcome happening.
  • Home wins / Draws / Away wins: the predicted % chance of various potential scoreline outcomes of the match.
  • Mean odds: Estimates of online bookmakers’ average probabbility forecasts for the Home and Away teams to win, which could be compared with Outcome Probs.

Championship, R37 (6-8 Mar, 2020) — Model says Forest have 47% chance of beating Millwall tonight

The table below gives the Model’s forecasts for Round 37 of the English Championship, along with forecast probabilities estimated from current online bookmaker odds.

Championship forecasts R37 2020, RED
  • Expected Goals: the forecast average number of goals the Model expects for Home and Away teams
  • Outcome Probs: the model predicted % chance of either a Home or Away win, with 100 minus these two numbers being the % chance of a draw.
  • Score Picks: the Most likely forecast scoreline outcome, as well as the most likely conditional on the most likely result outcome happening.
  • Home wins / Draws / Away wins: the predicted % chance of various potential scoreline outcomes of the match.
  • Mean odds: Estimates of online bookmakers’ average probability forecasts for the Home and Away teams to win, which could be compared with Outcome Probs.

Premier League, R28 (28 Feb – 1 Mar) — Canaries have 32% chance tonight of (fatally?) wounding the Foxes push for 2nd.

The table below gives the Model’s forecasts for Round 28 of the Premier League, along with forecast probabilities estimated from current online bookmaker odds.

PL forecasts, R28 2020, RED
  • Expected Goals: the forecast average number of goals the Model expects for Home and Away teams
  • Outcome Probs: the model predicted % chance of either a Home or Away win, with 100 minus these two numbers being the % chance of a draw.
  • Score Picks: the Most likely forecast scoreline outcome, as well as the most likely conditional on the most likely result outcome happening.
  • Home wins / Draws / Away wins: the predicted % chance of various potential scoreline outcomes of the match.
  • Mean odds: Estimates of online bookmakers’ average probabbility forecasts for the Home and Away teams to win, which could be compared with Outcome Probs.

Championship, R36 (29 Feb-2 Mar, 2020) — 44% chance that the return to form of Leeds continues with a win at Hull

The table below gives the Model’s forecasts for Round 36 of the English Championship, along with forecast probabilities estimated from current online bookmaker odds.

  • Expected Goals: the forecast average number of goals the Model expects for Home and Away teams
  • Outcome Probs: the model predicted % chance of either a Home or Away win, with 100 minus these two numbers being the % chance of a draw.
  • Score Picks: the Most likely forecast scoreline outcome, as well as the most likely conditional on the most likely result outcome happening.
  • Home wins / Draws / Away wins: the predicted % chance of various potential scoreline outcomes of the match.
  • Mean odds: Estimates of online bookmakers’ average probability forecasts for the Home and Away teams to win, which could be compared with Outcome Probs.