Scorecasting Economists

Spotlight on… Oldham Athletic vs Forest Green Rovers

This afternoon sees the second ever visit of Forest Green to Oldham. Last season the match yielded no goals as both teams were seeking to push higher up the table. This season, Forest Green couldn’t be in worse form, and Oldham come into it off the back of a 5-1 humbling at Exeter on Tuesday.

It’s testament to Forest Green’s start that despite picking up one point of the last 18 available, and 14 from the last 51, they’re still nine points and nine positions better off than Oldham.

Oldham have home advantage, and have been in good home form of late, with a 3-0 and 3-1 win in their last two home matches, and have only lost once at home since early October (W4, D3).

A classic 1-1 draw is most likely – 12.4%. Oldham to nick it by a goal (1-0, 2-1, 3-2) is at 23%.

The Elo rating history of the two sides is revealing. Forest Green have been moving up the leagues in recent years, while Oldham stagnated in League One before falling into League Two in 2018. This season had looked good for Forest Green and bad for Oldham at the start, but the Elo rating of the two has merged in recent weeks.

Lower League Matches, 15 February 2020

Action in Leagues One and Two this weekend. Can Bolton keep their minuscule chances of avoiding relegation alive at home against Wycombe? A fighting 1-0 for the Trotters in the Wanderers’ Derby is 9.3%.

Stevenage were trending on Twitter in the week with #stevenageforleaguefootball, and things are looking bleak: they’re 68% likely to be relegated out of the Football League. But that gives a 32% chance of surviving – lots of hope remaining. They host Salford today. A fighting win for the East Coast Main Liners is 9.9%. Can they do it?

Updated end-of-season League Tables

We’ve already posted the updated Championship, but here are all four English League Divisions as the Scorecasting Model sees things panning out.

Premier League: Liverpool 100% for the title. Norwich 81% for the drop.

Championship: West Brom 78% for automatic promotion. Leeds just 25%. Barnsley 88% for the drop.

League One: Rotherham 56% for automatic promotion. Ipswich just 2%. Bolton 97.5% for the drop.

League Two: Four-way race for three places between Swindon, Crewe, Plymouth and Exeter. Stevenage 68.3% for the drop.

Premier League, R26 (part 2) (14-17 Feb) — Wolves favourites to beat Leicester tonight, with 43% chance of the win.

The table below gives the Model’s forecasts for Round 26 of the Premier League, along with forecast probabilities estimated from current online bookmaker odds.

EPL forecasts part 2 R26, 2020
  • Expected Goals: the forecast average number of goals the Model expects for Home and Away teams
  • Outcome Probs: the model predicted % chance of either a Home or Away win, with 100 minus these two numbers being the % chance of a draw.
  • Score Picks: the Most likely forecast scoreline outcome, as well as the most likely conditional on the most likely result outcome happening.
  • Home wins / Draws / Away wins: the predicted % chance of various potential scoreline outcomes of the match.
  • Mean odds: Estimates of online bookmakers’ average probabbility forecasts for the Home and Away teams to win, which could be compared with Outcome Probs.

English Football League Championship Final Table Simulations (updated 14/2/2020) – West Brom 78% chance of autmoatic promotion. Leeds now just 35% chance.

Based on 1,000 simulations of the University of Reading’s Scorecasting Model to the end of the season, the below table shows the % chance of each English Football League Championship team finishing in positions 1-24.

EFL end of season 14022020

Based on all matches and results up to and including 13/2/2020

Spotlight on…. Derby County: Rams loss in midweek drops chances of making the playoffs to 3%. Hope is snuffed out.

Derby host Huddersfield tomorrow. The table below provides various statistics about the match up, as well as the outputs of the Scorecasting Model.

Based on 1000 simulations of the Model from now to the end of the season, Derby are now being given a delightful 10% chance of making the Playoffs, when just alast week this was 10%.

Championship, R33 (14-15 Feb, 2020) — Model has Hull as 44% favourites tonight agaisnt Swansea, who are at 30% chance of the win

The table below gives the Model’s forecasts for Round 33 of the English Championship, along with forecast probabilities estimated from current online bookmaker odds.

EFL Chap forecasts R33, 2020, RED
  • Expected Goals: the forecast average number of goals the Model expects for Home and Away teams
  • Outcome Probs: the model predicted % chance of either a Home or Away win, with 100 minus these two numbers being the % chance of a draw.
  • Score Picks: the Most likely forecast scoreline outcome, as well as the most likely conditional on the most likely result outcome happening.
  • Home wins / Draws / Away wins: the predicted % chance of various potential scoreline outcomes of the match.
  • Mean odds: Estimates of online bookmakers’ average probability forecasts for the Home and Away teams to win, which could be compared with Outcome Probs.

Spotlight on…. Derby County: Rams now have 10% chance of making the Playoffs, thanks to Wayne’s World coming to the East Midlands

Derby travel to Bristol City tomorrow night. The table below provides various statistics about the match up, as well as the outputs of the Scorecasting Model.

Inspired by Wayne, Derby’s form has ticked up, and the Rams have a decent chance of beating Bristol (34%), though the home side remain slight favourites (40%). The bookies, through their odds, are a little bit more pessimistic about Derby’s chances, however.

On ELO rating, due to recent form, Derby are ranked the stronger team than Bristol right now, despite being 6 places and 7 points behind in the league, though Bristol still have the not insignificant home advantage.

Based on 1000 simulations of the Model from now to the end of the season, Derby are now being given a delightful 10% chance of making the Playoffs, when just a few weeks ago this chance was next to zero. Light the beacons! Hope is kindled!

Spotlight Derby 11022020

Championship, R32 (11-12 Feb, 2020) — Leeds significant underdogs at Brentford

The table below gives the Model’s forecasts for Round 32 of the English Championship, along with forecast probabilities estimated from current online bookmaker odds.

Forecasts EFL Champs R32 2020 RED
  • Expected Goals: the forecast average number of goals the Model expects for Home and Away teams
  • Outcome Probs: the model predicted % chance of either a Home or Away win, with 100 minus these two numbers being the % chance of a draw.
  • Score Picks: the Most likely forecast scoreline outcome, as well as the most likely conditional on the most likely result outcome happening.
  • Home wins / Draws / Away wins: the predicted % chance of various potential scoreline outcomes of the match.
  • Mean odds: Estimates of online bookmakers’ average probability forecasts for the Home and Away teams to win, which could be compared with Outcome Probs.

Enhanced Spotlight on… Oldham Athletic

Suddenly, Oldham are bang in form. Seven without a win a week ago, six unbeaten this week after two three-goal wins in a week. But Crewe are another matter entirely, sitting handsomely in second place. RED gives them a 50.5% chance of going up (see below). Oldham are just happy that their chances of relegation have fallen to a mere 0.4% after their recent run.

The recent past at Gresty Road has been reasonably happy for Oldham. But it’s hard to really see anything other than a home win tomorrow.