The English Football League One and Two seasons begin in earnest on Saturday. Sunderland begin lower-league life by hosting Charlton Athletic Рa fixture which 13 years ago graced the Premier League. Both teams are expected to fight for automatic promotion this season (Sunderland 43.6%, Charlton 9.8%), and so this game is expected to be tight Рthe most likely scoreline sees Sunderland shading it by the only goal of the game.
Coventry‘s return to League One after Play-Off promotion from League Two is a tricky home fixture against Scunthorpe, League One Play-Off Semi-Finalists last season. Scunthorpe are the more likely to take home three points, and the most likely scoreline sees them winning 1-0.
In League Two, two relegated sides face off on the opening day, as MK Dons visit Boundary Park to face Oldham. Your author is a nervous Oldham fan, scarred from many seasons of decline, and finds the most likely outcome, a 1-0 home win, entertaining. Oldham and MK Dons are both expected to fight for an immediate return to League One, but our model is, as yet, unable to factor in the kinds of general malaise and incompetence one only observes at one’s own football club.

Forecast Prob (%)
Accrington 1-1 Gillingham 13
Barnsley 1-0 Oxford 14
Burton 1-0 Rochdale 16
Coventry 0-1 Scunthorpe 16
Fleetwood 1-0 AFC Wimbledon 13
Peterborough 2-0 Bristol R 10
Portsmouth 1-0 Luton 16
Shrewsbury 1-0 Bradford 18
Southend 1-0 Doncaster 16
Sunderland 1-0 Charlton 20
Walsall 1-0 Plymouth 14
Wycombe 1-1 Blackpool 13
Forecast Prob (%)
Bury 2-1 Yeovil 10
Cheltenham 1-1 Crawley 12
Crewe 1-1 Morecambe 15
Exeter 1-0 Carlisle 14
Grimsby 1-1 Forest Green 14
Mansfield 1-0 Newport Co 13
Northampton 1-0 Lincoln 17
Notts Co 1-0 Colchester 15
Oldham 1-0 MK Dons 13
Port Vale 1-0 Cambridge U 14
Stevenage 3-0 Tranmere 10
Swindon 3-0 Macclesfield 11