Tonight there are National League, and EFL Cup games. Part of experimenting with potential improvements to forecasting, we have expanded the matches over which we estimate, enabling forecasts of these “other” matches.
We present these abbreviated below (NL=National League, EFLC=EFL Cup, and we hope the teams are still clear). We also present some conditional probabilities, namely the probability of the most likely outcome. This is because while 1-1 is the most likely score, a draw isn’t the most likely outcome. Leeds vs Bolton is a great example of this, where the most likely score is 1-1 (11%), but the most likely outcome is a home win, (45%). Hence the conditional forecast is a 2-1 Leeds win, which seems more sensible, and is at 9% rather than 11%.
Note one other thing; H & W is Havant and Waterlooville, new entrants to the National League. This means they are, for the first time, in our dataset and hence our model, and as a result their model-generated probability of winning at Dover is 0. This is, of course, inaccurate; even Oldham have a 12% chance of beating Derby, a team two divisions above them. Still some wrinkles to iron out…
Forc | Pr (%) | P(H) | P(A) | C.Forc | C.Prob | |||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
EFLC | M’field | Acc’ton | 1-1 | 12 | 34 | 37 | 0-1 | 9 |
EFLC | P’mth | AFCW | 1-1 | 12 | 42 | 29 | 1-0 | 10 |
EFLC | Yeovil | A Villa | 0-1 | 11 | 11 | 69 | 0-1 | 11 |
NL | H’gate | Barnet | 2-2 | 7 | 43 | 37 | 2-1 | 7 |
EFLC | B’pool | Brnsley | 1-1 | 11 | 34 | 39 | 1-2 | 8 |
EFLC | RDG | B’ham | 1-1 | 11 | 39 | 34 | 2-1 | 9 |
EFLC | Carlisle | B’burn | 1-2 | 10 | 20 | 57 | 1-2 | 10 |
EFLC | Leeds | Bolton | 1-1 | 11 | 45 | 28 | 2-1 | 9 |
EFLC | Macc | Brdford | 1-1 | 12 | 29 | 42 | 0-1 | 10 |
EFLC | Sthend | Brntfrd | 1-1 | 10 | 21 | 55 | 1-2 | 10 |
NL | Estleigh | Brmley | 1-1 | 11 | 38 | 37 | 2-1 | 8 |
EFLC | S’bury | Burton | 1-1 | 13 | 36 | 33 | 1-0 | 10 |
EFLC | N Frst | Bury | 2-1 | 10 | 61 | 17 | 2-1 | 10 |
EFLC | MK | Ch’ton | 1-1 | 11 | 37 | 36 | 2-1 | 8 |
NL | Barrow | Ch’field | 1-1 | 11 | 31 | 43 | 1-2 | 9 |
EFLC | Chelt | Colch | 1-1 | 10 | 40 | 35 | 2-1 | 8 |
EFLC | Oxford | Cov | 1-1 | 12 | 46 | 26 | 1-0 | 10 |
EFLC | Bristl R | Crwley | 1-1 | 10 | 55 | 20 | 2-1 | 10 |
NL | A’shot | Dag & R | 1-1 | 13 | 36 | 36 | 1-0 | 10 |
EFLC | Oldham | Derby | 0-1 | 10 | 12 | 68 | 0-1 | 10 |
EFLC | S’thorpe | D’caster | 1-1 | 11 | 44 | 28 | 2-1 | 9 |
EFLC | Crewe | F’wood | 1-1 | 11 | 33 | 40 | 1-2 | 9 |
EFLC | Sw’don | FGR | 1-1 | 9 | 51 | 25 | 2-1 | 9 |
NL | B’hm W | G’head | 1-0 | 13 | 42 | 28 | 1-0 | 13 |
EFLC | Millwal | G’ham | 2-1 | 10 | 57 | 19 | 2-1 | 10 |
NL | Salford | Halifax | 1-1 | 13 | 38 | 32 | 1-0 | 13 |
NL | Br’tree | H’pool | 1-1 | 13 | 37 | 34 | 1-0 | 11 |
NL | Dover | H & W | 1-0 | 26 | 85 | 0 | 1-0 | 26 |
EFLC | Sheff U | Hull | 1-1 | 12 | 29 | 44 | 0-1 | 10 |
EFLC | Exeter | Ipswich | 1-1 | 10 | 24 | 51 | 1-2 | 10 |
NL | M’stone | L Ornt | 1-1 | 11 | 28 | 47 | 1-2 | 9 |
EFLC | P Vale | Lincoln | 1-1 | 11 | 42 | 32 | 2-1 | 9 |
EFLC | W Brm | Luton | 1-0 | 12 | 64 | 13 | 1-0 | 12 |
EFLC | Preston | M’camb | 2-0 | 11 | 73 | 08 | 2-0 | 11 |
EFLC | Camb U | Nwpt C | 1-1 | 11 | 49 | 24 | 2-1 | 10 |
EFLC | Wyc | N’hmpn | 1-1 | 12 | 46 | 26 | 1-0 | 10 |
EFLC | M’bro | N Co | 2-0 | 12 | 80 | 6 | 2-0 | 12 |
EFLC | QPR | P’bro | 2-1 | 10 | 57 | 20 | 2-1 | 10 |
EFLC | Bristl C | P’mth | 2-1 | 10 | 60 | 17 | 2-1 | 10 |
EFLC | Grmsby | R’dale | 1-1 | 11 | 27 | 47 | 1-2 | 09 |
NL | Fylde | Solihull | 1-1 | 10 | 58 | 19 | 2-1 | 10 |
EFLC | N’wich | Stv’age | 2-0 | 10 | 78 | 07 | 2-0 | 10 |
NL | Ebbsfl | Sutton | 1-1 | 13 | 44 | 28 | 1-0 | 13 |
EFLC | Tranm | Walsall | 1-1 | 12 | 39 | 32 | 1-0 | 10 |
EFLC | R’ham | Wigan | 1-1 | 0.11 | 0.35 | 0.37 | 1-2 | 0.08 |
NL | M’head | W’ham | 1-1 | 0.13 | 0.36 | 0.36 | 0-1 | 0.10 |
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