Championship, R4 (21-22 August, 2018)

There are just ten midweek Championship fixtures, with two from this round having already been played in the opening week of the season.
The standout game is at the Liberty Stadium, where Bielsa’s Leeds look to keep their perfect start to the season going. However, the model favours Swansea to end this run, with a 2-1 home win (10%).
After a last minute winner in their opening game, Derby have failed to match our predictions and have struggled. The model gives them a 58% chance of victory against Ipswich at Pride Park.
Unbeaten Bolton are the surprise package of the Championship so far. The Trotters welcome Birmingham to the University of Bolton Stadium. This is a match where the most likely result is a home win, but our forecast scoreline is a score draw (1-1; 13%)
As discussed before (here & here), we continue to tinker with our forecasting method. Our aim has always been to provide a single scoreline forecast to hang our hats on. But it is challenging to balance both plausible result and score forecasts simultaneously, which will perform well against some metric. Therefore, we are now making “Fuzzy Conditional” forecasts, discussed here.
The table below contains:

• The Forecast scoreline, with the % chance of that happening
• The % chance of a win by the Home team, P(H), or Away team, P(A) (with one hundred minus those two numbers giving the % chance of a draw