Matches are coming thick and fast in League One and League Two, with the fifth set of fixtures taking place over this weekend. Peterborough and Portsmouth are the only two teams with a 100% record: played four, won four. Will they continue? Our model suggests no, with Peterborough losing at Plymouth (1-0, 9%), and Portsmouth drawing at Doncaster (1-1, 13%). If both did still have a 100% record at 5pm on Saturday, this wouldn’t be the most earth shattering of events, though, since Peterborough have a 35% chance of winning, and Portsmouth a 36% chance.
In League Two, five teams remain unbeaten, and two face each other as Exeter visit MK Dons. MK Dons in 5th look the more likely to beat first placed Exeter (43% for MK Dons, 30% for Exeter), and the most likely scoreline is a 1-0 win for Exeter. The four winless teams at the foot of the table (Northampton, Cheltenham, Macclesfield and Notts County) all look set to carry on their miserable starts to the season.

Most likely Win (%)
Score Pr (%) P(H) P(A)
Blackpool Accrington 1-0 14% 48% 24%
Scunthorpe Barnsley 0-1 10% 35% 39%
Oxford Burton 1-0 11% 40% 32%
Gillingham Coventry 1-0 15% 48% 24%
Charlton Fleetwood 1-0 13% 43% 28%
Plymouth Peterboro 1-0 9% 39% 35%
Doncaster Portsmouth 1-1 13% 37% 36%
Luton Shrewsbury 1-0 14% 48% 24%
Bristol R Southend 2-1 9% 47% 29%
AFC Wimbledon Sunderland 0-1 11% 26% 48%
Rochdale Walsall 1-0 10% 48% 27%
Bradford Wycombe 1-0 16% 57% 17%
Most likely Win (%)
Score Pr (%) P(H) P(A)
Crawley Bury 0-1 11% 31% 42%
Cambridge Cheltenham 1-0 12% 52% 23%
Carlisle Crewe 2-1 10% 53% 24%
MK Dons Exeter 1-0 10% 43% 30%
Newport Grimsby 1-0 13% 44% 28%
Macclesfield Mansfield 1-1 13% 31% 39%
Colchester N’hampton 1-0 10% 46% 29%
Lincoln Notts Co 1-0 12% 52% 23%
Morecambe Oldham 0-1 15% 26% 45%
Tranmere Port Vale 1-0 12% 51% 24%
Yeovil Stevenage 0-1 10% 36% 37%
Forest Green Swindon 1-2 8% 38% 38%