Midweek is a busy week in the Football League, with a full set of fixtures in Leagues One and Two. We continue to refine our conditional forecasts, also. There’s a…Read More >
Month: August 2018
Reality Check
Last weekend the Premier League forecast performance was exceptional. This weekend, it looks no better than what people who thought Gay Meadow was just the name of a funfair could…Read More >
Model vs the Experts
Last week was a great week for us. How will this week turn out? Mark Lawrenson and Paul Merson have both revealed their forecasts – see the table below, where…Read More >
Lower Leagues, R3 (17-19 August)
We continue our lower league forecasts. We report conditional forecasts (see here and here for more on these), the most likely scoreline conditional on what is the most likely result….Read More >
Premiership, R2 (18-20 August)
The table below gives the model’s forecasts for Round 2 of the Premier League. We still predict the most likely scoreline in the match, but read here on how and…Read More >
Championship, R3 (17-19 August, 2018)
Our forecasts for Round 3 of the Championship are in the Table below. But first, a quick word on how and why we are expanding our range of forecasts: Over…Read More >
Evaluation and Scoring Rules
A bunch of “other” matches took place last night, which we forecast. We also presented conditional probabilities, perhaps a bit more intuitive because while 1-1 is the most likely result,…Read More >
One-alls, and conditional probabilities
A few patterns are emerging, after a couple of weeks of forecasting. One is that it’s harder work predicting scores outside the Premier League, but the other is that as…Read More >
Forecasts of Other Matches (August 14)
Tonight there are National League, and EFL Cup games. Part of experimenting with potential improvements to forecasting, we have expanded the matches over which we estimate, enabling forecasts of these…Read More >
The Big One!
The revolving page header images and the pseudonyms used may have alerted you to the reality that one of the Scorecasting Economists follows Derby County, and the other Oldham Athletic….Read More >