Almost a quarter of the way through the lower league season, and League One continues to flummox us. We got a score last week, our first since mid-August, but it remains a division with more away wins (34) than home wins (32), an unusually balanced set of outcomes. Our set of forecasts for League One seem to have learnt nothing, with just one away win predicted, that for second-placed Peterborough at Gillingham, 2-1 (9%).
It’s one of a number of top(ish) vs bottom(ish) clashes taking place this weekend. This gives us hope that perhaps we might get a few more than our average of 4 scores this weekend…
| Forecast | Win (%) | ||||
| League One | Score | PR(%) | P(H) | P(A) | |
| Accrington | AFC W’don | 1-1 | 13% | 42% | 29% |
| Doncaster | Bradford | 1-0 | 13% | 48% | 26% |
| Barnsley | Burton | 1-0 | 12% | 56% | 21% |
| Bristol R | Coventry | 1-0 | 13% | 50% | 24% |
| Southend | Fleetwood | 1-1 | 13% | 40% | 33% |
| Blackpool | Luton | 1-1 | 13% | 38% | 33% |
| Gillingham | Peterboro | 1-2 | 9% | 33% | 42% |
| Charlton | Plymouth | 1-0 | 15% | 49% | 24% |
| Sunderland | Rochdale | 2-1 | 10% | 64% | 17% |
| Scunthorpe | Shrewsbury | 1-0 | 14% | 45% | 27% |
| Oxford | Walsall | 1-0 | 12% | 46% | 28% |
| Portsmouth | Wycombe | 1-0 | 13% | 59% | 18% |
In the basement, things appeared to be taking shape until last . week joint leaders Newport got hammered 6-0 at home by Yeovil (we predicted a 1-0 Newport win). Two sides remain unbeaten, but oddly enough neither are within 6 points of league leaders Lincoln. MK Dons will be looking to close that six point gap though when they travel to Lincoln on Saturday. The model predicts a draw though, 1-1 (13%).
Forest Green are the other unbeaten side, but are draw specialists, having drawn six of their eight games (including the match featured in the picture above). This weekend they might just get a win, though as the Model think they’ll prevail 2-1 over improving Crawley Town (9%). Oldham hope their second home clash against top-seven opponents will end differently to their last, beaten by a pre-Yeovil sturdy Newport in gameweek 7. The Model thinks there’s a 32% chance Colchester will take the points home from their trip to Boundary Park, but predicts a 1-1 draw (13%) as the most likely outcome.
| Forecast | Win (%) | ||||
| League Two | Score | PR(%) | P(H) | P(A) | |
| Bury | Carlisle | 1-1 | 13% | 40% | 34% |
| Cambridge | Mansfield | 1-1 | 13% | 36% | 34% |
| Crewe | Port Vale | 1-0 | 10% | 45% | 30% |
| Exeter | Cheltenham | 2-1 | 10% | 59% | 19% |
| Forest Green | Crawley | 2-1 | 9% | 44% | 32% |
| Lincoln | MK Dons | 1-1 | 13% | 40% | 30% |
| Morecambe | M’field | 0-0 | 14% | 40% | 29% |
| N’hampton | Notts Co | 1-0 | 9% | 47% | 29% |
| Oldham | Colchester | 1-1 | 13% | 38% | 32% |
| Stevenage | Grimsby | 1-0 | 14% | 54% | 21% |
| Tranmere | Newport | 1-0 | 13% | 50% | 24% |
| Yeovil | Swindon | 1-1 | 12% | 39% | 35% |