Bradford and Plymouth are having lousy seasons. They’re doing so badly that our binary Model, which rarely predicts teams to score much more than one per game, thinks between them they’ll concede nine. Bradford are expected to suffer a demoralising 4-1 defeat at fellow strugglers Gillingham (6% score probability), while Plymouth, who recorded a much needed win against the Gills in the week, are expected to suffer a 5-1 humbling at Scunthorpe (6% score probability).

Forecast Win (%)
League One Score PR(%) P(H) P(A)
Accrington Portsmouth 0-0 21% 39% 32%
AFCW Luton 0-1 10% 26% 46%
Barnsley Bristol R 1-0 18% 52% 22%
Burton Peterboro 1-1 8% 37% 34%
Coventry Doncaster 0-0 11% 39% 32%
Fleetwood Blackpool 0-0 41% 37% 34%
Gillingham Bradford 4-1 6% 46% 26%
Oxford Shrewsbury 0-0 24% 35% 36%
Rochdale Charlton 1-1 8% 36% 35%
Scunthorpe Plymouth 5-1 6% 49% 24%
Sunderland Southend 2-1 9% 56% 19%
Walsall Wycombe 1-0 13% 42% 30%

Newport have been struggling of late, but thankfully for them, they are facing Morecambe (4-1, 6%). Cambridge, who finally got a win in the week, will also be delighted to see Macclesfield, fresh from their 5-0 home defeat to Northampton (1-0, 11%). Will Lincoln’s relentless march towards League One be stopped? Apparently so, in deepest darkest Essex (0-0 vs Colchester, 4%).

Forecast Win (%)
League Two Score PR(%) P(H) P(A)
Cambridge Macclesfield 1-0 11% 44% 28%
Carlisle Yeovil 1-0 18% 41% 30%
Cheltenham Stevenage 0-0 28% 34% 37%
Colchester Lincoln 0-0 4% 37% 34%
Crewe Grimsby 1-0 18% 45% 27%
Exeter Forest Green 1-0 12% 47% 26%
Mansfield MK Dons 1-0 12% 39% 32%
Newport Co Morecambe 4-1 6% 56% 19%
N’hampton Oldham 0-0 16% 37% 34%
Notts Co Swindon 0-0 4% 33% 38%
Port Vale Bury 0-1 22% 31% 40%
Tranmere Crawley 1-0 20% 46% 26%