The festive fixture schedule continues tomorrow with another full programme in the lower leagues. Luton’s barnstorming run (10 wins from 11) means they have been one of the biggest movers in our updated final league table forecasts. An update after the Boxing Day games has them installed as favourites for the League One Title, ahead of Portsmouth. They look set to continue their fine form with a 2-1 win at Walsall (10%).

Forecast Win (%)
League One Score PR(%) P(H) P(A)
Accrington Peterboro 1-1 13% 37% 34%
AFC Wim Blackpool 0-0 23% 32% 39%
Barnsley Charlton 1-0 13% 63% 15%
Burton Plymouth 2-1 9% 54% 21%
Coventry Southend 1-0 12% 40% 31%
Fleetwood Portsmouth 0-0 15% 37% 34%
Gillingham Doncaster 1-1 9% 37% 34%
Oxford Bristol R 1-0 14% 57% 18%
Rochdale Bradford 1-1 8% 33% 38%
Scunthorpe Wycombe 2-2 7% 34% 38%
Sunderland Shrewsbury 1-0 15% 41% 30%
Walsall Luton 1-2 10% 28% 44%

In League Two, Macclesfield have taken 7 points from a possible 9 and look rejuvenated under Sol Campbell. Can they carry that form on? They face Carlisle, who are fresh from scoring six goals from seven attempts on target on Boxing Day. The Model thinks that even though Carlisle won’t be facing a team that has sacked their manager (on more than one occasion), and one of their star players, they’ll still win 2-0 (12%).

Forecast Win (%)
League Two Score PR(%) P(H) P(A)
Cambridge Lincoln 0-2 12% 16% 61%
Carlisle Macclesfield 2-0 12% 59% 18%
Chelt’ham F Green 1-1 7% 34% 37%
Colchester Morecambe 2-0 14% 57% 19%
Crewe Stevenage 0-0 14% 37% 34%
Exeter Grimsby 2-0 15% 40% 31%
Mansfield Swindon 1-0 20% 56% 19%
Newport Co Crawley 1-0 10% 62% 16%
N’hampton MK Dons 1-0 8% 39% 32%
Notts Co Bury 1-2 8% 20% 54%
Port Vale Oldham 0-1 12% 22% 52%
Tranmere Yeovil 1-0 16% 61% 16%