After the distractions of the FA Cup, and indeed League Cup in the week, league action returns this weekend with a whole host of crunch clashes in the lower leagues. League One surprise package Luton, who drew at Sheffield Wednesday in the FA Cup, go to Sunderland in a top-of-the-table clash. Can they cope without their magician Nathan Jones, who has upped sticks and moved to Stoke? The Model thinks so; they’re going to win 1-0 (11%).
| Forecast | Win (%) | ||||
| League One | Score | PR(%) | P(H) | P(A) | |
| Accrington | Bristol R | 1-0 | 10% | 52% | 22% |
| Barnsley | Bradford | 2-0 | 11% | 41% | 31% |
| Burton | Gillingham | 1-1 | 10% | 35% | 37% |
| Coventry | AFC Wim | 1-1 | 12% | 32% | 39% |
| Fleetwood | Oxford | 1-0 | 13% | 47% | 25% |
| Peterboro | Rochdale | 2-1 | 9% | 59% | 18% |
| Portsmouth | Blackpool | 1-0 | 17% | 69% | 12% |
| Shrewsbury | Charlton | 1-0 | 11% | 52% | 22% |
| Southend | Plymouth | 2-1 | 10% | 49% | 24% |
| Sunderland | Luton | 0-1 | 11% | 32% | 39% |
| Walsall | Scunthorpe | 2-1 | 8% | 44% | 28% |
| Wycombe | Doncaster | 1-2 | 8% | 19% | 56% |
What about League Two? FA Cup giantkillers Newport and Oldham (pictured) return to the mundanity of the league, can they carry on their momentum? The Model thinks so, with Newport to win 1-0 at Crewe (7%), and Oldham to beat away-day specialists Forest Green 2-1 (5%).
| Forecast | Win (%) | ||||
| League Two | Score | PR(%) | P(H) | P(A) | |
| Bury | MK Dons | 2-1 | 7% | 45% | 27% |
| Chelt’ham | Tranmere | 2-1 | 5% | 42% | 30% |
| Crewe | Newport | 0-1 | 7% | 25% | 47% |
| Exeter | Morecambe | 2-1 | 9% | 62% | 16% |
| Grimsby | Macc | 2-1 | 8% | 52% | 22% |
| Mansfield | Yeovil | 1-0 | 11% | 57% | 19% |
| N’hampton | Carlisle | 2-2 | 7% | 38% | 33% |
| Notts Co | Cambridge | 1-1 | 9% | 35% | 36% |
| Oldham | F Green | 2-1 | 5% | 56% | 19% |
| Port Vale | Colchester | 1-1 | 14% | 37% | 34% |
| Stevenage | Crawley | 2-1 | 10% | 42% | 29% |
| Swindon | Lincoln | 1-2 | 10% | 30% | 42% |