England’s second city currently lacks a Premier League side (as I wouldn’t include Wolves as a Birmingham based team). Villa are trying to put this right. They are within touching distance of the playoffs, and still have a slim hope of getting promotion. Tonight they host high-flying Sheffield in front of the Holt End. The Model makes Villa favourites (41%) and gives a scoreline forecast of 1-0 (11%).
Forest have dropped away from the promotion picture, sitting in 12th place in the league. They host Brentford, who for the first time in a few seasons are not over-achieving. The Model makes Forest marginal favourites with a 38% chance of a win, and a most likely scoreline of 1-0 (15%).
The rest of our Championship forecasts are in the table below:
- The Forecast scoreline, with the % chance of that happening
- The % chance of a win by the Home team, P(H), or Away team, P(A) (with one hundred minus those two numbers giving the % chance of a draw
Forecast | Win (%) | ||||
Score | Pr (%) | P(H) | P(A) | ||
Aston Villa | Sheff Utd | 1-0 | 11 | 41 | 32 |
Blackburn | Bristol City | 1-1 | 13 | 37 | 36 |
Bolton | Preston | 0-1 | 17 | 27 | 46 |
Derby | Hull | 2-1 | 9 | 47 | 26 |
Middlesbrough | Leeds | 1-0 | 16 | 45 | 28 |
Notts Forest | Brentford | 1-0 | 15 | 38 | 34 |
QPR | Birmingham | 2-1 | 8 | 40 | 33 |
Rotherham | Wigan | 1-0 | 15 | 40 | 32 |
Sheffield Wed | Reading | 1-0 | 12 | 52 | 23 |
Stoke | West Brom | 0-1 | 10 | 31 | 41 |
Swansea | Millwall | 1-0 | 16 | 46 | 27 |
Norwich | Ipswich | 2-0 | 12 | 69 | 13 |