The standout fixture this weekend sees Manchester City take on a Higuaín-rejuvenated Chelsea. The Model makes Man City massive favourites at home, with a 59% chance of victory. The most likely scoreline is 2-0 (11%).
Spurs are still in the title hunt for sure, but to stay in it they have to put teams like Leicester away. The Model says they probably will, with a 63% chance of beating the Foxes and a forecast scoreline of 2-0 (10%).
Can Liverpool still win the title? This seems like a strange question to ask of a team who are level on equal points at the top of the table with a game in hand. But they are giving away ground on their rivals now, and momentum on the run-in is everything. The Model however makes them heavy favourites to get back to winning ways this weekend, with a 68% chance of beating Bournemouth at Anfield. The most likely outcome in this fixture is 3-0 (13%).
The table below gives the rest of the Model’s forecasts for Round 26 of the Premier League:
- The Forecast scoreline, with the % chance of that happening
- The % chance of a win by the Home team, P(H), or Away team, P(A) (with one hundred minus those two numbers giving the % chance of a draw
Forecast | Win (%) | ||||
Score | Pr (%) | P(H) | P(A) | ||
Brighton | Burnley | 1-0 | 15 | 48 | 26 |
Crystal Palace | West Ham | 1-0 | 11 | 48 | 26 |
Fulham | Manchester Utd | 1-2 | 10 | 21 | 55 |
Huddersfield | Arsenal | 0-1 | 15 | 20 | 56 |
Liverpool | Bournemouth | 3-0 | 13 | 68 | 13 |
Southampton | Cardiff | 1-0 | 14 | 57 | 20 |
Watford | Everton | 1-0 | 10 | 49 | 25 |
Manchester City | Chelsea | 2-0 | 11 | 59 | 18 |
Spurs | Leicester | 2-0 | 10 | 63 | 16 |
Wolves | Newcastle | 1-0 | 17 | 54 | 22 |