We have run the simulations and updated our probabilistic forecasts of the final Premier League and Championship tables in 2019 (below — also see here for comparison with previous end of season forecasts).
Liverpool are now title favourites, 56% to City’s 44%.
Man Utd have a forecast 61% likelihood of making the top 4 and qualifying for the Champions League (that way). Chelsea (35%), Arsenal (37%) and Spurs (67%) are also still competition for a top 4 spot.
Fulham (96%) and Huddersfield (99.9%) are essentially gone (who knew?). Brighton are most likely to join them in the Championship next season at 26%. Cardiff are only at a 13% chance of going down.
In the Championship, it remains tight at the top. Derby still have a 46% chance of the play-offs despite their recent wobbles.
Norwich (80%) and Leeds (55%) are both now odds on favourites for automatic promotion according to the Model. Along with Sheffield Utd, those three teams are almost guaranteed at least a playoff spot.
The Scorecasting Economists’ local club, Reading, off the back of their solid recent form, are only 28% for the drop. Rotherham are 70%. Bolton are almost certainly relegated and Ipswich are effectively gone.
There is only a small probability that Stoke will get relegated, 0.8%, but we can all dream anyway.
These forecasts incorporate all information from all matches up to 7th March.
Most likely final position and chances of: winning the title, Champions League qualification, relegation, automatic promotion and making at least the playoffs.
English Premier League, 2018/19
Most likely pos. | Likelihood of… (%) | ||||||
Aug | Oct | Dec | Mar | Title | CL | Rel | |
2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | Liverpool | 55.9 | 100 | 0 |
1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | Man City | 43.6 | 100 | 0 |
3 | 4 | 3 | 3 | Tottenham | 0.4 | 67.2 | 0 |
2 | 5 | 6 | 3 | Man Utd | 0.1 | 60.5 | 0 |
6 | 3 | 4 | 6 | Chelsea | 0 | 34.7 | 0 |
6 | 6 | 5 | 6 | Arsenal | 0 | 37.3 | 0 |
17 | 9 | 12 | 7 | Watford | 0 | 0.3 | 0 |
12 | 12 | 11 | 8 | Everton | 0 | 0 | 0 |
15 | 7 | 7 | 10 | B’mouth | 0 | 0 | 0.3 |
16 | 15 | 8 | 10 | West Ham | 0 | 0 | 0.1 |
10 | 8 | 11 | 10 | Wolves | 0 | 0 | 0.8 |
7 | 10 | 7 | 11 | Leicester | 0 | 0 | 1.6 |
7 | 20 | 18 | 14 | Cardiff | 0 | 0 | 12.6 |
14 | 18 | 15 | 15 | Newcastle | 0 | 0 | 11 |
14 | 15 | 13 | 16 | C Palace | 0 | 0 | 14.6 |
16 | 17 | 17 | 16 | S’ton | 0 | 0 | 16 |
11 | 16 | 16 | 17 | Burnley | 0 | 0 | 21.6 |
18 | 11 | 8 | 18 | Brighton | 0 | 0 | 25.7 |
9 | 12 | 20 | 19 | Fulham | 0 | 0 | 95.8 |
20 | 19 | 20 | 20 | Hudd | 0 | 0 | 99.9 |
EFL Championship
Most likely pos. | Likelihood of… (%) | |||||||
Aug | Oct | Dec | March | Title | AP | Poffs | Rel | |
19 | 15 | 2 | 1 | Norwich | 53.7 | 79.3 | 99.7 | 0 |
11 | 3 | 1 | 2 | Leeds | 23.9 | 54.6 | 98.8 | 0 |
9 | 5 | 8 | 3 | Sheff U | 15.8 | 42.8 | 97.2 | 0 |
3 | 2 | 3 | 4 | W Brom | 4.1 | 11.7 | 82.5 | 0 |
7 | 1 | 8 | 4 | Midd | 2 | 8 | 75.5 | 0 |
5 | 14 | 1 | 6 | Derby | 0.2 | 1.6 | 45.6 | 0 |
5 | 10 | 10 | 7 | Bristol C | 0.2 | 0.8 | 35.4 | 0 |
24 | 16 | 7 | 8 | Birm | 0.1 | 0.5 | 23.5 | 0 |
22 | 6 | 3 | 9 | Notts | 0 | 0.4 | 14.6 | 0 |
12 | 17 | 11 | 10 | Preston | 0 | 0.1 | 13.8 | 0 |
15 | 22 | 22 | 11 | Hull | 0 | 0 | 5.9 | 0 |
8 | 4 | 22 | 13 | Brent | 0 | 0 | 1.4 | 0 |
2 | 6 | 5 | 14 | Swansea | 0 | 0 | 1.3 | 0 |
3 | 8 | 7 | 16 | A Villa | 0 | 0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
14 | 13 | 14 | 16 | Blackb | 0 | 0.2 | 2.4 | 0.1 |
22 | 20 | 14 | 16 | QPR | 0 | 0 | 0.5 | 0 |
18 | 9 | 20 | 17 | Sheff Wed | 0 | 0 | 1.5 | 0 |
1 | 12 | 6 | 18 | Stoke | 0 | 0 | 0.1 | 0.8 |
16 | 6 | 13 | 20 | Wigan | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10 |
15 | 18 | 21 | 20 | Millwall | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8.5 |
20 | 23 | 21 | 21 | Reading | 0 | 0 | 0 | 28.2 |
18 | 21 | 21 | 22 | Roth | 0 | 0 | 0 | 69.5 |
23 | 19 | 23 | 23 | Bolton | 0 | 0 | 0 | 86.5 |
14 | 24 | 24 | 24 | Ipswich | 0 | 0 | 0 | 96.3 |
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