We have run the simulations and updated our probabilistic forecasts of the final Premier League and Championship tables in 2019 (below — also see here for comparison with previous end of season forecasts).
Liverpool are now title favourites, 56% to City’s 44%.
Man Utd have a forecast 61% likelihood of making the top 4 and qualifying for the Champions League (that way). Chelsea (35%), Arsenal (37%) and Spurs (67%) are also still competition for a top 4 spot.
Fulham (96%) and Huddersfield (99.9%) are essentially gone (who knew?). Brighton are most likely to join them in the Championship next season at 26%. Cardiff are only at a 13% chance of going down.
In the Championship, it remains tight at the top. Derby still have a 46% chance of the play-offs despite their recent wobbles.
Norwich (80%) and Leeds (55%) are both now odds on favourites for automatic promotion according to the Model. Along with Sheffield Utd, those three teams are almost guaranteed at least a playoff spot.
The Scorecasting Economists’ local club, Reading, off the back of their solid recent form, are only 28% for the drop. Rotherham are 70%. Bolton are almost certainly relegated and Ipswich are effectively gone.
There is only a small probability that Stoke will get relegated, 0.8%, but we can all dream anyway.


These forecasts incorporate all information from all matches up to 7th March.
Most likely final position and chances of: winning the title, Champions League qualification, relegation, automatic promotion and making at least the playoffs.


English Premier League, 2018/19

Most likely pos. Likelihood of… (%)
Aug Oct Dec Mar Title CL Rel
2 2 2 1 Liverpool 55.9 100 0
1 1 1 2 Man City 43.6 100 0
3 4 3 3 Tottenham 0.4 67.2 0
2 5 6 3 Man Utd 0.1 60.5 0
6 3 4 6 Chelsea 0 34.7 0
6 6 5 6 Arsenal 0 37.3 0
17 9 12 7 Watford 0 0.3 0
12 12 11 8 Everton 0 0 0
15 7 7 10 B’mouth 0 0 0.3
16 15 8 10 West Ham 0 0 0.1
10 8 11 10 Wolves 0 0 0.8
7 10 7 11 Leicester 0 0 1.6
7 20 18 14 Cardiff 0 0 12.6
14 18 15 15 Newcastle 0 0 11
14 15 13 16 C Palace 0 0 14.6
16 17 17 16 S’ton 0 0 16
11 16 16 17 Burnley 0 0 21.6
18 11 8 18 Brighton 0 0 25.7
9 12 20 19 Fulham 0 0 95.8
20 19 20 20 Hudd 0 0 99.9

EFL Championship

Most likely pos. Likelihood of… (%)
Aug   Oct Dec March Title AP Poffs Rel
19 15 2 1 Norwich 53.7 79.3 99.7 0
11 3 1 2 Leeds 23.9 54.6 98.8 0
9 5 8 3 Sheff U 15.8 42.8 97.2 0
3 2 3 4 W Brom 4.1 11.7 82.5 0
7 1 8 4 Midd 2 8 75.5 0
5 14 1 6 Derby 0.2 1.6 45.6 0
5 10 10 7 Bristol C 0.2 0.8 35.4 0
24 16 7 8 Birm 0.1 0.5 23.5 0
22 6 3 9 Notts 0 0.4 14.6 0
12 17 11 10 Preston 0 0.1 13.8 0
15 22 22 11 Hull 0 0 5.9 0
8 4 22 13 Brent 0 0 1.4 0
2 6 5 14 Swansea 0 0 1.3 0
3 8 7 16 A Villa 0 0 0.3 0.1
14 13 14 16 Blackb 0 0.2 2.4 0.1
22 20 14 16 QPR 0 0 0.5 0
18 9 20 17 Sheff Wed 0 0 1.5 0
1 12 6 18 Stoke 0 0 0.1 0.8
16 6 13 20 Wigan 0 0 0 10
15 18 21 20 Millwall 0 0 0 8.5
20 23 21 21 Reading 0 0 0 28.2
18 21 21 22 Roth 0 0 0 69.5
23 19 23 23 Bolton 0 0 0 86.5
14 24 24 24 Ipswich 0 0 0 96.3