We’ve re-calculated end-of-season probabilities according to the Model for League One. The gap from Charlton down means that, realistically, there’s only one play-off place left up for grabs, and Coventry at 40% likely to grab that spot, Doncaster just 27%. Barnsley have a 53% probability of denying Sunderland the second promotion spot; Luton are nailed on for the other.
At the bottom, 12 teams still have positive probabilities of relegation, with seven games left. The four most likely to go down are Oxford (62%), Wimbledon (79%), Bradford (51%) and Southend (41%).

Probability (%)
Team Most Likely Position Title Promotion Playoffs Relegation
LUT 1 89% 89% 98% 100% 0%
BAR 2 46% 6% 53% 100% 0%
SUN 3 40% 4% 42% 100% 0%
CHA 5 41% 0% 4% 99% 0%
POR 5 41% 0% 4% 98% 0%
COV 6 34% 0% 0% 40% 0%
DON 6 24% 0% 0% 27% 0%
BLA 7 24% 0% 0% 24% 0%
FLE 9 17% 0% 0% 5% 0%
BUR 10 16% 0% 0% 3% 0%
PLY 11 17% 0% 0% 1% 0%
PET 12 16% 0% 0% 2% 0%
SCU 13 14% 0% 0% 0% 3%
ACC 14 10% 0% 0% 0% 16%
WAL 15 11% 0% 0% 0% 13%
BRI 16 10% 0% 0% 0% 20%
WYC 17 11% 0% 0% 0% 25%
SHR 18 12% 0% 0% 0% 20%
ROC 22 12% 0% 0% 0% 40%
GIL 22 10% 0% 0% 0% 31%
SOU 22 11% 0% 0% 0% 41%
BRA 22 14% 0% 0% 0% 51%
WIM 24 39% 0% 0% 0% 79%
OXF 24 19% 0% 0% 0% 62%