Norwich and Leeds both dropped points on Good Friday, as the potential riches of the Premier League get closer. Along with Sheffield Utd, who are also in the automatic promotion picture, these three teams all have away fixtures on Monday. RED fancies Sheffield and Norwich to win at Hull and Stoke, but the news is less good for Leeds, who face a tricky fixture at Brentford. The Model forecasts this one to end 1-0 (10%).

Derby County are just about clinging on to playoff hopes. But they absolutely must beat QPR at home on Monday. RED gives them a 57% chance of doing just that, and the most likely outcome is 1-0 (12%).

The rest of the Model’s forecasts for R44 (22 April) of the English Championship are in the table below:

Forecast Win (%)
Score Pr (%) P(H) P(A)
Aston Villa Millwall 1-0 13 60 17
Blackburn Bolton 1-0 17 64 15
Brentford Leeds 1-0 10 37 35
Derby QPR 1-0 12 57 20
Hull Sheff Utd 0-1 11 30 43
Ipswich Swansea 0-1 17 26 47
Notts Forest Middlesbrough 1-0 16 38 34
Reading West Brom 0-2 10 31 42
Rotherham Birmingham 0-1 10 34 38
Sheff Wed Bristol City 1-0 11 41 31
Stoke Norwich 0-1 14 25 49
Wigan Preston 0-1 14 35 37
  • The Forecast scoreline, with the % chance of that happening
  • The % chance of a win by the Home team, P(H), or Away team, P(A) (with one hundred minus those two numbers giving the % chance of a draw