Continuing to split the lower leagues up for the final few matches, in this post we look at League Two. The final two automatic promotion places remain up for grabs, and the final play-off spot remains to be determined. At the bottom, which two from Yeovil, Macclesfield and Notts County will exit the Football League? Here are the latest end-of-season probabilities:

Position Probability (%)
team Most Likely Pr (%) Title Promotion Playoffs Relegation
Lincoln 1 100% 100% 100% 100% 0%
Bury 2 58% 0% 87% 100% 0%
Mansfield 3 37% 0% 58% 100% 0%
MK Dons 4 37% 0% 51% 100% 0%
Forest Green 5 57% 0% 2% 100% 0%
Tranmere 6 66% 0% 1% 100% 0%
Exeter 7 43% 0% 0% 45% 0%
Newport Co 7 23% 0% 0% 25% 0%
Colchester 9 20% 0% 0% 10% 0%
Stevenage 10 24% 0% 0% 6% 0%
Carlisle 11 18% 0% 0% 5% 0%
Oldham 11 18% 0% 0% 11% 0%
Crewe 14 31% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Swindon 14 42% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Northampton 15 84% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Cheltenham 16 60% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Grimsby 17 45% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Crawley 18 42% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Morecambe 19 41% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Port Vale 20 48% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Cambridge U 21 65% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Macclesfield 22 71% 0% 0% 0% 28%
Yeovil 23 48% 0% 0% 0% 81%
Notts Co 24 59% 0% 0% 0% 92%

Looking first at the promotion spots, Lincoln are already Champions, but the second two spots are still up for grabs. Bury have an 87% chance of taking one of them, Mansfield 58% and MK Dons 51%. Forest Green (2%) and Tranmere (1%) are the outsiders, despite Bury’s shaky form. Tranmere will hope to boost their hopes as they entertain Bury on Saturday, and RED thinks Tranmere will win 2-1 (8%, Tranmere 40% to win).

Looking next at the play-off places, only Exeter’s place of the current four is in doubt, and their abject run of form (5 points from 5 matches) doesn’t bode well.¬†They have a 45% chance of making the playoffs, and face a crunch tie against playoff outsiders Oldham (11%). RED thinks this is a dead heat; a 1-1 draw most likely (12%), and each team 36% likely to win. Newport, who themselves face Oldham in a game in hand on Tuesday, have a 25% chance of making the playoffs, but face Champions Lincoln at home. RED thinks that despite Lincoln having their feet up, they’ll still prevail 1-0 in South Wales (14%). Colchester in 8th place have a 10% chance, but also face a tricky tie at home to promotion chasing MK Dons. RED thinks MK Dons will win 1-0 (9%).

Ten of the top twelve on Saturday will face each other; it promises to be an absolutely crucial day in League Two.

Forecast Win (%)
Score PR(%) P(H) P(A)
Cambridge U Morecambe 1-0 14% 39% 33%
Carlisle Crawley 1-0 13% 53% 22%
Cheltenham Swindon 1-0 7% 42% 31%
Colchester MK Dons 0-1 9% 35% 38%
Crewe Forest Green 1-1 12% 37% 35%
Exeter Oldham 1-1 12% 36% 36%
Mansfield Stevenage 1-0 15% 55% 21%
Newport Co Lincoln 0-1 14% 32% 41%
Northampton Yeovil 1-0 13% 60% 18%
Notts Co Grimsby 1-1 13% 36% 36%
Port Vale Macclesfield 1-0 14% 45% 28%
Tranmere Bury 2-1 8% 40% 33%

At the bottom, Macclesfield have only a 28% chance of avoiding relegation. Should they win at Port Vale (28% chance),  Notts County fail to beat Grimsby (64% chance), and Yeovil fail to beat Northampton (82% chance), then the fate of the latter two will be settled.

What a weekend in store!