Well, it’s not looking good for England’s last two representatives in Europe. Liverpool suffered a 3-0 reverse in the first leg at Barcelona, and Tottenham fell to a 1-0 home defeat. Can they overturn these results?
RED thinks they can’t. Liverpool are likely to gain a consolation win (2-1, 9%), but Tottenham won’t even manage that, as RED thinks they’ll fall to another 1-0 defeat (12%).
Forecast | Win (%) | |||||
Score | PR(%) | P(H) | P(A) | |||
Tue | Liverpool | Barcelona | 2-1 | 0.09061717 | 0.53681709 | 0.21763295 |
Wed | Ajax | Tottenham | 1-0 | 0.12050226 | 0.51535243 | 0.23265002 |
We also provide Jean-Louis Foulley’s forecasts:
Forecast |
Win |
||||
Foulley | Score | P(R) | P(H) | P(A) | |
Liverpool | Barcelona | 1-1 | 11% | 33% | 38% |
Ajax | Tottenham | 1-0 | 10% | 43% | 32% |
Since RED calculates a probability for each scoreline, we can look at the chance that Liverpool have of overturning their 3-0 deficit. RED gives them a 3.6% chance of forcing extra time with a 3-0 win, and a 3% chance of winning outright (4-0, 5-0, 5-1, 6-0,…). For Tottenham, things aren’t quite as bleak. There’s a 7.2% chance they will force extra time with a 1-0 win, and a 15.5% chance they can win outright tomorrow night.