RED has been revamped ahead of the new season, and has cranked out some end of season outcome probabilities. Can Man City to it again? Will Liverpool end that long drought? How will Man United to? What about the top six – can Wolves break in? Will the promoted teams just get relegated again, immediately?
RED was run to generate probability forecasts like those that will be reported each week this coming season, and match outcomes according to those probabilities were simulated. This was done 10,000 times, and the results are below. We present each team, with their most likely position from the simulations, followed by five probabilities: for their most likely position, for winning the title, for finishing in the top 4, in the top 6, and for being relegated.
Man City have a 41% chance of winning the Premier League again, but Liverpool are close behind, at 37%. Chelsea, despite a summer of change, are still most likely to finish third, and Frank Lampard has a 32.6% chance of leading them back into the Champions League in 2020.
Everton are more likely (38%) than Wolves (30%) to break into the top six.
At the bottom, last season’s strugglers Brighton and Southampton are expected to struggle again, and alongside promoted Aston Villa are most likely to form the bottom three. Sheffield United have an 18% chance of relegation, and Norwich a 15% chance.