A full set of fixtures in League Two sees a West(ish) Country Derby between Cheltenham and Swindon, where RED and the bookmakers differ significantly on their view of the game.
The bookmakers are apparently more influenced by the hype surrounding their start to the season, relative to the substance. RED takes into account the results, and the results plus home advantage for Cheltenham yield expected goals of 1.5 for Cheltenham to only 1.1 for Swindon, meaning Ritchie Wellens’s side only has a 27% chance of winning relative to the bookmakers who put this at 41%.
Similarly, RED offers an alternative when it comes to Macclesfield against Scunthorpe. The visitors have started badly after relegation; they may be the “bigger” club, but Macclesfield have started strongly after finishing last season strongly. For RED it points towards a home win (50.5%), 1-0 the most likely such result (11.5%), but the bookmakers have Macc only at 32.4%.
Resurgent Cambridge also host sluggish Oldham…