RED’s Bi-P-VAR-X model has powered up for R3 of the Premier League.
The weekend begins with a seemingly tight fixture between Aston Villa and Everton on Friday evening. RED says that both teams have expected goals scored in the match of about one and a quarter. Therefore the most likely scoreline outcome is firmly a 1-1 draw (13%). Notably, the current bookmaker average odds favour Everton slightly more than RED does.
Liverpool vs Arsenal looks like the standout fixture this weekend. The latter arguably did the shrewdest business of the transfer window and have so far won both of their opening fixtures. However, Liverpool have also taken 6 points so far, have home advantage and a squad that didn’t need strengthening over the summer. Therefore, RED makes Liverpool firm favourites, with expected goals of 2 to Arsenal’s 0.9, and a home win percentage of 64%, which is almost identical to the bookmakers. The most likely scoreline outcome is 2-0 (11%).
- Expected Goals: the forecast average number of goals the Model expects for Home and Away teams
- Outcome Probs: the model predicted % chance of either a Home or Away win, with 100 minus these two numbers being the % chance of a draw.
- Score Picks: the Most likely forecast scoreline outcome, as well as the most likely conditional on the most likely result outcome happening.
- Home wins / Draws / Away wins: the predicted % chance of various potential scoreline outcomes of the match.
- Mean odds: Estimates of online bookmakers’ average probability forecasts for the Home and Away teams to win, which could be compared with Outcome Probs.