Manchester Utd are struggling. Their “kids” and rotation players have in the past two weeks struggled to defeat third tier Rochdale in the League Cup and Kazakh champions Astana in the UEFA Cup. Last weekend they were comfortably brushed aside by West Ham. There is no respite for Ole’s men this weekend either, as they host Arsenal in the Monday night fixture at Old Trafford. Given recent form, it is no surprise that the Model makes Man U rare (though slight) underdogs at home. Both teams are expected to score one and a third goals, and the most likely outcome is 1-1 (12.3%). Incidentally, the Model is slightly more pessimistic based on recent form than the bookmakers, who imply a higher probability of a Man U win (41%).

The table below gives the rest of the  Model’s forecasts for Round 7 of the Premier League, along with forecast probabilities estimated from current online bookmaker odds.

PL forecasts R7 2019, RED
  • Expected Goals: the forecast average number of goals the Model expects for Home and Away teams
  • Outcome Probs: the model predicted % chance of either a Home or Away win, with 100 minus these two numbers being the % chance of a draw.
  • Score Picks: the Most likely forecast scoreline outcome, as well as the most likely conditional on the most likely result outcome happening.
  • Home wins / Draws / Away wins: the predicted % chance of various potential scoreline outcomes of the match.
  • Mean odds: Estimates of online bookmakers’ average probability forecasts for the Home and Away teams to win, which could be compared with Outcome Probs.