The model likes 1-1. In 11 of the 12 matches on Tuesday and Wednesday night the Model predicts 1-1 is the most likely outcome. Only in the bottom-of-the-table clash between Stoke and Huddersfield does the Model see a significant point of difference, with Stoke forecast to beat Huddersfield, with 1.6 goals expected for the home side but less than 1 for the Terriers. In this particular fixture, the Model provides a similar forecast to the average among bookmaker odds, with the former forecasting a 51% chance of a Stoke win and the latter 53%.
The table below gives the rest of the Model’s forecasts for Round 10 of the English Championship, along with forecast probabilities estimated from current online bookmaker odds.
- Expected Goals: the forecast average number of goals the Model expects for Home and Away teams
- Outcome Probs: the model predicted % chance of either a Home or Away win, with 100 minus these two numbers being the % chance of a draw.
- Score Picks: the Most likely forecast scoreline outcome, as well as the most likely conditional on the most likely result outcome happening.
- Home wins / Draws / Away wins: the predicted % chance of various potential scoreline outcomes of the match.
- Mean odds: Estimates of online bookmakers’ average probability forecasts for the Home and Away teams to win, which could be compared with Outcome Probs.