Almost a quarter of the Championship season has been played, yet there is no runaway leader or promotion hopefuls as yet. The top 9 teams all lie within 3 points of one another. Tonight mid-table (though just 6 points off the top) Cardiff City host Sheffield Wednesday. The Model makes Cardiff notably stronger favourites at 48% chance of a win than the bookmakers do at 42%. The most likely outcome this evening is 1-1 (12.4%).

The table below gives the rest of the Model’s forecasts for Round 12 of the English Championship, along with forecast probabilities estimated from current online bookmaker odds.

Champ forecasts, R12 2019, RED
  • Expected Goals: the forecast average number of goals the Model expects for Home and Away teams
  • Outcome Probs: the model predicted % chance of either a Home or Away win, with 100 minus these two numbers being the % chance of a draw.
  • Score Picks: the Most likely forecast scoreline outcome, as well as the most likely conditional on the most likely result outcome happening.
  • Home wins / Draws / Away wins: the predicted % chance of various potential scoreline outcomes of the match.
  • Mean odds: Estimates of online bookmakers’ average probability forecasts for the Home and Away teams to win, which could be compared with Outcome Probs.