Last round of fixtures, we bemoaned the noncompetitive state of top-flight English football, because the Model had only given Wolves a 5% chance of a win at Man City. Well… Wolves went and showed us where to stick it didn’t they? At least you can’t say the Model got it wrong… 5% is not no chance, just a small one.

On Sunday, Manchester United host Liverpool. The Model gives the home side a 22% chance of a win, compared with just 18% among the bookmakers. Nonetheless, 22% seems a bit generous if you have actually seen how the respective sides have been playing lately – but we back our Model regardless.

The table below gives the rest of the  Model’s forecasts for Round 9 of the Premier League, along with forecast probabilities estimated from current online bookmaker odds.

Prem forecasts, R9 2019, RED
  • Expected Goals: the forecast average number of goals the Model expects for Home and Away teams
  • Outcome Probs: the model predicted % chance of either a Home or Away win, with 100 minus these two numbers being the % chance of a draw.
  • Score Picks: the Most likely forecast scoreline outcome, as well as the most likely conditional on the most likely result outcome happening.
  • Home wins / Draws / Away wins: the predicted % chance of various potential scoreline outcomes of the match.
  • Mean odds: Estimates of online bookmakers’ average probability forecasts for the Home and Away teams to win, which could be compared with Outcome Probs.