Statistically, the Model factors in a significant negative effect on a team’s performance of having played both recently, i.e. midweek, especially in Europe and away from home. Therefore, we are not surprised that the Model makes Manchester Utd marginal underdogs in their visit to Norwich on Sunday, with the latter given a 39% chance of a home win, 1.3 expected goals, and a most likely outcome of 1-1 (13%). What is perhaps surprising, however, is that the bookmaker odds imply Man U are significant favoruites, with a 53% chance of a win, and just 22% for Norwich – perhaps they are factoring in some notion that Utd’s players will be playing for their manager’s job?
The table below gives the rest of the Model’s forecasts for Round 10 of the Premier League, along with forecast probabilities estimated from current online bookmaker odds.
- Expected Goals: the forecast average number of goals the Model expects for Home and Away teams
- Outcome Probs: the model predicted % chance of either a Home or Away win, with 100 minus these two numbers being the % chance of a draw.
- Score Picks: the Most likely forecast scoreline outcome, as well as the most likely conditional on the most likely result outcome happening.
- Home wins / Draws / Away wins: the predicted % chance of various potential scoreline outcomes of the match.
- Mean odds: Estimates of online bookmakers’ average probability forecasts for the Home and Away teams to win, which could be compared with Outcome Probs.