Barnsley host Bristol City tonight in the Friday evening championship kick-off. The University of Reading’s “Super” computer, a.k.a. RED, predicts that Barnsley are favourites in this fixture, with a 48% chance of a win, compared with just 26% for Bristol. This contrasts with the bookmakers, who on average make Bristol slight favourites. Barnsley, on average, are expected to score 1.5 goals, compared with 1 for Bristol, and the most likely outcome of the match is 1-1, expecting to occur 12 times if this match were actually played 100 times.
- Expected Goals: the forecast average number of goals the Model expects for Home and Away teams
- Outcome Probs: the model predicted % chance of either a Home or Away win, with 100 minus these two numbers being the % chance of a draw.
- Score Picks: the Most likely forecast scoreline outcome, as well as the most likely conditional on the most likely result outcome happening.
- Home wins / Draws / Away wins: the predicted % chance of various potential scoreline outcomes of the match.
- Mean odds: Estimates of online bookmakers’ average probability forecasts for the Home and Away teams to win, which could be compared with Outcome Probs.