Sunderland aren’t ripping up trees this season in League One. But surely they won’t fail against abject Southend, with their single win and two draws from fifteen matches, right? RED gives them a 63.4% chance of winning, with 2-0 at 11.8%.

In League Two, there’s a local derby match. It’s not a Potteries derby, and it’s not a Cheshire derby. What is it? It’s Crewe, league leaders, vs 11th placed Port Vale. The form book may go out of the window, and if so then RED’s 50.3% probability for Crewe to win is meaningless. As is the 12.3% chance of a narrow home win…