Halloween may be past us, but that won’t make this weekend any less scary for Southampton fans. After conceding 9 at home last time out, they travel to Manchester City this weekend. Apply any logic, and City will surely score more than 9? The bookies certainly think Southampton have no chance, with the chance of an away implied by their odds just 3%. The Model perhaps gives less weight to the potential outlier of last weekend, and gives Southampton a healthy 9% chance of a win. City are expected to score 2.8 goals to Southampton’s 0.7, and the most likely scoreline outcome is 2-0 (12%).
- Expected Goals: the forecast average number of goals the Model expects for Home and Away teams
- Outcome Probs: the model predicted % chance of either a Home or Away win, with 100 minus these two numbers being the % chance of a draw.
- Score Picks: the Most likely forecast scoreline outcome, as well as the most likely conditional on the most likely result outcome happening.
- Home wins / Draws / Away wins: the predicted % chance of various potential scoreline outcomes of the match.
- Mean odds: Estimates of online bookmakers’ average probability forecasts for the Home and Away teams to win, which could be compared with Outcome Probs.