Have Leicester replaced Manchester Utd in the Premier League’s “top 6” sides? The Foxes certainly get value for money, compared with the distinct lack of value in the League’s most successful club’s current team. This weekend Leicester host Arsenal in a game that could well make a difference in the race for Champions League qualification come the end of the season. The home side are the favourites according to the Model, with 1.5 expected goals and a 45% chance of a win, though the most likely scoreline is 1-1 (12%), followed by 1-0 (10%). The result outcome predictions are similar to what the average of the odds among bookmakers suggests — the bookmakers have learned their lesson when it comes to underestimating and paying out big on Leicester.

The table below gives the rest of the  Model’s forecasts for Round 12 of the Premier League, along with forecast probabilities estimated from current online bookmaker odds.

R12 forecasts, Prem 2019, RED
  • Expected Goals: the forecast average number of goals the Model expects for Home and Away teams
  • Outcome Probs: the model predicted % chance of either a Home or Away win, with 100 minus these two numbers being the % chance of a draw.
  • Score Picks: the Most likely forecast scoreline outcome, as well as the most likely conditional on the most likely result outcome happening.
  • Home wins / Draws / Away wins: the predicted % chance of various potential scoreline outcomes of the match.
  • Mean odds: Estimates of online bookmakers’ average probability forecasts for the Home and Away teams to win, which could be compared with Outcome Probs.