Mourinho may be coming to this season’s Premier League party late, but he still has two thirds of the season left to make his mark. Nobody doubts that he will at least generate talking points galore. Spurs start the Special One’s North London jaunt over in the East End, away at West Ham. The bookmaker odds-implied probabilities make Spurs strong favourites with a 53% chance of a win. The Model however has this one far more even, with just a 36% chance of a spurs win, and with West Ham actually as marginal favourites. The most likely outcome of the match is 1-1 (12%).

The table below gives the rest of the  Model’s forecasts for Round 13 of the Premier League, along with forecast probabilities estimated from current online bookmaker odds.

PL R13 forecasts 2019, RED
  • Expected Goals: the forecast average number of goals the Model expects for Home and Away teams
  • Outcome Probs: the model predicted % chance of either a Home or Away win, with 100 minus these two numbers being the % chance of a draw.
  • Score Picks: the Most likely forecast scoreline outcome, as well as the most likely conditional on the most likely result outcome happening.
  • Home wins / Draws / Away wins: the predicted % chance of various potential scoreline outcomes of the match.
  • Mean odds: Estimates of online bookmakers’ average probability forecasts for the Home and Away teams to win, which could be compared with Outcome Probs.