There is a top of the table clash tonight between Swansea and Fulham. The Model suggests it will be tight, with the home side, Swansea, given a 41% chance of a win, and Fulham given a 32% chance. The expected goals are 1.3 and 1.1, respectively, and the most likely score is 1-1 (13%). Interestingly, the bookmakers agree on the margin between the two teams, but have it the other way around, suggesting a 40% chance of a win for Fulham and 33% for Swansea.
The table below gives the rest of the Model’s forecasts for Round 19 of the English Championship, along with forecast probabilities estimated from current online bookmaker odds.
- Expected Goals: the forecast average number of goals the Model expects for Home and Away teams
- Outcome Probs: the model predicted % chance of either a Home or Away win, with 100 minus these two numbers being the % chance of a draw.
- Score Picks: the Most likely forecast scoreline outcome, as well as the most likely conditional on the most likely result outcome happening.
- Home wins / Draws / Away wins: the predicted % chance of various potential scoreline outcomes of the match.
- Mean odds: Estimates of online bookmakers’ average probability forecasts for the Home and Away teams to win, which could be compared with Outcome Probs.