The Premier League returns to Amazon Prime on the 26-27th December. Last time was fun! Right?!? Perhaps Sky’s hegemony over the league will soon be over.
The standout fixture is between the league’s top 2, as Liverpool travel to Leicester. The Model gives Liverpool a 44% chance of a win, compared with the 47% chance implied by the average bookmaker odds. The most likely scoreline is 1-1 (12%), suggesting no change in the title picture.
New Everton manager Ancelotti hosts Burnley on Boxing Day. The Model is agnostic about a new manager, and gives The Toffees a 48% chance of a win, with 1.5 expected goals. The Bookies perhaps anticipate a new manager bounce, and give Everton a seemingly generous 56% chance of a win.
- Expected Goals: the forecast average number of goals the Model expects for Home and Away teams
- Outcome Probs: the model predicted % chance of either a Home or Away win, with 100 minus these two numbers being the % chance of a draw.
- Score Picks: the Most likely forecast scoreline outcome, as well as the most likely conditional on the most likely result outcome happening.
- Home wins / Draws / Away wins: the predicted % chance of various potential scoreline outcomes of the match.
- Mean odds: Estimates of online bookmakers’ average probabbility forecasts for the Home and Away teams to win, which could be compared with Outcome Probs.