Halfway through the season and the chasers have already conceded defeat in the title contest. After dismantling Leicester on Boxing Day, Liverpool have surely won the Premier League already. Can they contrive to chuck away this amount of an advantage? Their next outing is at home to Wolves, who fought back to beat Manchester City last night. The Model makes Liverpool strong favourites for 3 more points, at 64%, though not as strong as the Bookies, who on average have them at 75%. The most likely outcome of this one is 2-0 (11.3%).
The table below gives the rest of the Model’s forecasts for Round 20 of the Premier League, along with forecast probabilities estimated from current online bookmaker odds.
- Expected Goals: the forecast average number of goals the Model expects for Home and Away teams
- Outcome Probs: the model predicted % chance of either a Home or Away win, with 100 minus these two numbers being the % chance of a draw.
- Score Picks: the Most likely forecast scoreline outcome, as well as the most likely conditional on the most likely result outcome happening.
- Home wins / Draws / Away wins: the predicted % chance of various potential scoreline outcomes of the match.
- Mean odds: Estimates of online bookmakers’ average probabbility forecasts for the Home and Away teams to win, which could be compared with Outcome Probs.