The table below gives the Model’s forecasts for Round 21 of the English Championship, along with forecast probabilities estimated from current online bookmaker odds. Expected Goals: the forecast average number of goals the Model…Read More >
Month: December 2019
Champions League Forecasts, Gameweek 6, December 10-11
It’s crunch time for a number of clubs in the final round of group matches in the Champions League. We present, as always, forecasts from RED, but also from Jean-Louis…Read More >
Spotlight on… Oldham Athletic
It’s a return to League action this week for Oldham after their FA Cup exit. Time to focus on the league. Leyton Orient visit for what promises to be a…Read More >
Lower Leagues, Game Week 20, December 8
It’s getting perilously close to half way. Teams that were challengers last season have to be defined as strugglers this season, or mid-table no-hopers. It’s got to that point where…Read More >
Championship, R20 (6-8 Dec, 2019) — Millwall and Forest should be tight tonight
The table below gives the Model’s forecasts for Round 20 of the English Championship, along with forecast probabilities estimated from current online bookmaker odds. Expected Goals: the forecast average number of goals the Model…Read More >
Premier League, R16 (7-9 Dec): Man Utd’s chances of a win against City [Model = 14%] vs [Bookies = 10%] Longshot bias (mispricing)?
The forecasts of this weekend’s fixtures throw up some curious comparisons between the Model and those implied by the average of online bookmaker odds. These potentially suggest behavioural biases in…Read More >
One Lower League Match (again)
Tonight there is one lower league match – between Burton Albion and Southend. It looks like a formality…
Premier League, R15 (3-5 Dec): Don’t throw your form books out of the window, that would be crazy. Liverpool have 76% chance of win in Merseyside Derby
There is a midweek round of Premier League fixtures this week, Tuesday to Thursday (bizarrely). Most notable perhaps is the Wednesday evening Merseyside Derby at Anfield. Some bookmakers are now…Read More >