The transfer window is open but has so far been quiet. One side in dire need of reinforcements are Aston Villa. This weekend they face a tough visit by Man City. The Model still gives them a 19% chance of a win though. The bookmakers perhaps reflect more on the Villa injury crisis and just give them a 7% chance. The Most likely outcome according to the Model is 0-1 (12%), with City expected to score on average 1.8 goals.

The table below gives the rest of the Model’s forecasts for Round 22 of the Premier League, along with forecast probabilities estimated from current online bookmaker odds.

PL forecasts R22 2020, RED
  • Expected Goals: the forecast average number of goals the Model expects for Home and Away teams
  • Outcome Probs: the model predicted % chance of either a Home or Away win, with 100 minus these two numbers being the % chance of a draw.
  • Score Picks: the Most likely forecast scoreline outcome, as well as the most likely conditional on the most likely result outcome happening.
  • Home wins / Draws / Away wins: the predicted % chance of various potential scoreline outcomes of the match.
  • Mean odds: Estimates of online bookmakers’ average probabbility forecasts for the Home and Away teams to win, which could be compared with Outcome Probs.