A full set of fixtures (bar regrettably Bury and their would-be opponents today, Blackpool) in Leagues One and Two. RED fancies Bristol Rovers over Doncaster, and Macclesfield over Oldham, much more than the bookmakers do. What do the bookies know that RED doesn’t? Academics have hypothesised in the past that this might be due to information that bookmakers can collect over and above what goes into a statistical model like RED – previous match outcomes, essentially.
- Expected Goals: the forecast average number of goals the Model expects for Home and Away teams
- Outcome Probs: the model predicted % chance of either a Home or Away win, with 100 minus these two numbers being the % chance of a draw.
- Score Picks: the Most likely forecast scoreline outcome, as well as the most likely conditional on the most likely result outcome happening.
- Home wins / Draws / Away wins: the predicted % chance of various potential scoreline outcomes of the match.
- Mean odds: Estimates of online bookmakers’ average probability forecasts for the Home and Away teams to win, which could be compared with Outcome Probs.