Manchester Utd are apparently in trouble, and face a tough end to the season without their star man Rashford. Tomorrow night Utd face Burnley at Old Trafford. The Model gives the hosts a modest 55% chance of the win, compared with the average odds among bookmakers implying 68%. This suggests that the Bookies don’t think the loss of Rashford will be too significant, given that they are more optimistic than the Model, and the Model does not factor in the Rashford injury. Utd are expected to score 1.8 goals, compared wtih Burnley’s 1.0. The most likely outcome though is still 1-1 (11%).

The table below gives the rest of the Model’s forecasts for Round 24 of the Premier League, along with forecast probabilities estimated from current online bookmaker odds.

PL forecasts, R24 2020, RED
  • Expected Goals: the forecast average number of goals the Model expects for Home and Away teams
  • Outcome Probs: the model predicted % chance of either a Home or Away win, with 100 minus these two numbers being the % chance of a draw.
  • Score Picks: the Most likely forecast scoreline outcome, as well as the most likely conditional on the most likely result outcome happening.
  • Home wins / Draws / Away wins: the predicted % chance of various potential scoreline outcomes of the match.
  • Mean odds: Estimates of online bookmakers’ average probabbility forecasts for the Home and Away teams to win, which could be compared with Outcome Probs.