The Scorecasting Economists and their Model have been busy. Based on 1,000 simulations of the Model to the end of the season, the below table shows the % chance of each English Football League Championship team finishing in positions 1-24.

At the top, Leeds have a 50% chance of automatic promotion, West Brom have a 38% chance, Brentford 31%, Forest 29%, Fulham 19%,  and Preston 9%.

At the bottom, Luton have a 87% chance of relegation, Wigan have a 69% chance, Barnsley 62%, Charlton 26% and Stoke 19%. *[Excluding Derby County’s potential points reduction]

Derby County are most likely to finish in 17th-19th, but still have a 1.5% chance of at least making the playoffs and a 9% chance of relegation, without any financial fair play punishment.

Reading FC have a 10.3% chance of at least making the playoffs and a 1.3% chance of relegation.

EFL Champ End of Season forecasts, 27/1/2020, RED

Based on all matches and results up to and including 23/1/2020