The lower leagues began on Friday night this weekend. RED wasn’t paying attention, instead it was producing end of season probabilities. Here are our forecasts including last night’s Sunderland v Doncaster snooze-fest, for the lower leagues. They incorporate Reuters codes, in case you wonder why the acronyms are a little different to normal.

In both divisions, some teams have (or had) better things to be doing that playing out league matches. Those are the matches without any bookmaker prices (final two columns).

  • Expected Goals: the forecast average number of goals the Model expects for Home and Away teams
  • Outcome Probs: the model predicted % chance of either a Home or Away win, with 100 minus these two numbers being the % chance of a draw.
  • Score Picks: the Most likely forecast scoreline outcome, as well as the most likely conditional on the most likely result outcome happening.
  • Home wins / Draws / Away wins: the predicted % chance of various potential scoreline outcomes of the match.
  • Mean odds: Estimates of online bookmakers’ average probabbility forecasts for the Home and Away teams to win, which could be compared with Outcome Probs.