RED gets into the Reading FC matchday programme these days, providing analysis and forecasts for the day’s match. Today Reading entertain Cardiff in the FA Cup. It’s a tight match,…Read More >
Month: January 2020
Spotlight on… Oldham Athletic
Since shipping four goals at home to today’s opponents, Salford, on Boxing Day, Oldham have failed to win, picking up just three points in draws. Prior to Boxing Day, they’d…Read More >
League Two End of Season Outcome Probabilities
RED’s been hard at work producing end-of-season probabilities – who is going to do what? After the Premier League and the Championship, RED found a colour palette, and produced outcome…Read More >
Lower Leagues, 24-25 January
The lower leagues began on Friday night this weekend. RED wasn’t paying attention, instead it was producing end of season probabilities. Here are our forecasts including last night’s Sunderland v…Read More >
New Codes for Teams
We’ve realised that, unlike Sajid Javid, adhering to common standards can be helpful. We produce, for example, forecasts alongside Jean-Louis Foulley, and we found ourselves disagreeing on the codes, or…Read More >
English Premier League Final Table Simulations, January 2019/20
The University of Reading’s Scorecasting Model has crunched the numbers to look at how this season’s Premier League is most likely to end. Based on 1000 simulations of the Model…Read More >
Championship Final Table Simulations
The Scorecasting Economists and their Model have been busy. Based on 1,000 simulations of the Model to the end of the season, the below table shows the % chance of each…Read More >
Lower Leagues, 21 January 2020
There’s a scattering of lower league matches tonight – though not at Cheltenham, where the local(ish) derby with Newport has bitten the dust (for reasons I cannot find any information…Read More >
Premier League, R24 (21-23 Jan): Rashford-less Utd have 55% chance of a win against Burnley, according to Scorecasting Model.
Manchester Utd are apparently in trouble, and face a tough end to the season without their star man Rashford. Tomorrow night Utd face Burnley at Old Trafford. The Model gives…Read More >
Championship, R29 and 14 (21-22 Jan, 2020) — Model (just) favours Barnsley tonight against PNE.
The table below gives the Model’s forecasts for some rearranged games from Rounds 29 and 14 of the English Championship, along with forecast probabilities estimated from current online bookmaker odds. Expected Goals: the forecast…Read More >