Matches just keep on happening in English football, day by day, week by week. Some matches seem pivotal, but are they? One way to think about it is to look…Read More >
Month: February 2020
Championship, R34 (21-22 Feb, 2020) — Model makes Derby favourites tonight (40% chance of win), contradicting bookies
The table below gives the Model’s forecasts for Round 34 of the English Championship, along with forecast probabilities estimated from current online bookmaker odds. Expected Goals: the forecast average number of goals the Model…Read More >
Lower League Forecasts, 18 February
Oxford, Southend and Macclesfield host matches in the lower leagues this evening. All three looks like fairly easy picks – Oxford to beat Wimbledon (54%), Gillingham to win at Southend…Read More >
Champions League Last 16, First Legs (a)
The Champions League returns. Which means we post forecasts against Jean–Louis Foulley. He’s better than we are, but forecasting’s fun (especially superforecasting). So we’re back at it. Here are ours:…Read More >
Spotlight on… Oldham Athletic vs Forest Green Rovers
This afternoon sees the second ever visit of Forest Green to Oldham. Last season the match yielded no goals as both teams were seeking to push higher up the table….Read More >
Lower League Matches, 15 February 2020
Action in Leagues One and Two this weekend. Can Bolton keep their minuscule chances of avoiding relegation alive at home against Wycombe? A fighting 1-0 for the Trotters in the Wanderers’ Derby…Read More >
Updated end-of-season League Tables
We’ve already posted the updated Championship, but here are all four English League Divisions as the Scorecasting Model sees things panning out. Premier League: Liverpool 100% for the title. Norwich…Read More >
Premier League, R26 (part 2) (14-17 Feb) — Wolves favourites to beat Leicester tonight, with 43% chance of the win.
The table below gives the Model’s forecasts for Round 26 of the Premier League, along with forecast probabilities estimated from current online bookmaker odds. Expected Goals: the forecast average number of goals the Model…Read More >
English Football League Championship Final Table Simulations (updated 14/2/2020) – West Brom 78% chance of autmoatic promotion. Leeds now just 35% chance.
Based on 1,000 simulations of the University of Reading’s Scorecasting Model to the end of the season, the below table shows the % chance of each English Football League Championship team…Read More >
Spotlight on…. Derby County: Rams loss in midweek drops chances of making the playoffs to 3%. Hope is snuffed out.
Derby host Huddersfield tomorrow. The table below provides various statistics about the match up, as well as the outputs of the Scorecasting Model. Based on 1000 simulations of the Model…Read More >