After the FA Cup over the weekend, it’s back to the league for most teams. The exception basically is Bolton, Southend, Port Vale and Leyton Orient, who have already played their matches whilst everyone else was playing in the Cup.
The usual tables below, with expected goals (based on past matches), outcome probabilities (based on scoreline probabilities, which are further to the right in the tables). Then bookmaker odds furthest right, turned into probabilities by taking the reciprocal of the average decimal odds from Oddsportal for each match.
The most uneven match is at Sunderland as they host Burton. Sunderland are 58% likely to win according to our model, and 61% according to the bookies.