Championship 26 December (Boxing Day)
Football returns to the Championship after a short break.
Sadly for Middlesbrough their match is now postponed (sad for them, because our model predicted them to win 2-0 and gave them a 64% chance of winning).
Compared to the Premier League, the Championship is much closer though overall with no other team scoring above 2 on expected goals (see first column in the table below).
Bookmakers give slightly better odds of a Reading win against Luton than our model (44.8%, bookmakers and 39.1 from our model).
Model still predicts a 1-1 as the most likely result.
No much difference elsewhere in terms of our predictions and mean odds at bookmakers and only one match where bookmakers actually completely favour a different team to our model.
Barnsley v Huddersfield for instance our model gives almost the same odds as bookmakers (43.9% and 43.8% for a Barnsley win; 29.2% and 27.2% for a Huddersfield win).
There is one match where a slightly different outcome is predicted and that is Coventry v Stoke, where our model favours Coventy (43.3% to Stoke at 28.8%) whilst bookmakers are favouring Stoke at 36.9% to Coventry on 32.6%). Not much in it though. And our most likely result is a 1-1 draw.