Championship 29/12/20 – 30/12/20
The highest expected goals score for this set of matches is 1.79 for Norwich, which pretty much sums up how close the English Championship is. As usual a number of 1-1 draws are predicted.
Our model is again pretty close to bookmakers Mean Odds (see table below) being only a few percentage points out in most cases and largely agreeing on the likely outcomes.
Matches where there are slight differences in the teams favoured between our model and bookmakers are the first match at 5.30pm – Birmingham City v Derby, Huddersfield v Blackburn, and Millwall v Watford but this last match is postponed.
Sheffield Wednesday have just sacked Tony Pulis so it will be interesting to see if they can get a draw against Middlesbrough as our model suggests, as before that there wasn’t much in it (32.6% Sheff Weds v 41% Middlesbrough).
Reading have a tough game away to second-placed Swansea, although Reading are one of only 4 teams that have so far scored more than 30 goals. Our model heavily favours Swansea at 56.9% with a 1-0 win for Swansea predicted.