Premier League 6 February 2021 – 8 February 2021
Man Utd v Everton
One game this weekend that always makes me think of FA Cup Finals is Manchester United v Everton (this is me showing my age as it is the 1985 final that I remember better than the 1995 final).
The 1985 Final with Whiteside scoring in extra-time and Kevin Moran getting sent-off was the 3rd Cup final I can actually remember watching (the earlier two also involved Man Utd and Everton).
Man United are overwhelming favourites against Everton in this match with a 2-0 win predicted. Utd are 80% likely to win, with Everton at only 6.9% (bookmakers have them a bit higher at 15.6%). Man Utd
Tottenham v West Brom
Is this the match Tottenham return to early season form?
The odds are in their favour but models don’t usually take into account whether players like Harry Kane are playing.
It’s pretty much a universal opinion of anyone that watched them earlier in the week that Tottenham were rubbish, so although the stats have them on over 2 expected goals against West Brom, you have to say that West Brom have a chance of taking a point here.
That said West Brom have also been hopeless so maybe this really is the game that turns Tottenham’s season round. We have Tottenham at 73% to win. With a 2-0 win most likely.
Liverpool v Man City
This game looks close enough in terms of odds (33% Liverpool and 40% Man City win in our model; with Liverpool 5% lower in bookmaker mean odds and 6% higher for City). Not much to choose between on expected goals so really the most likely score of 1-1 is realistic.
Outside of the stats, whether Liverpool’s defence holds up (if Alisson returns then surely they have a better chance) against Man City remains to be seen.
Man City are looking fairly unstoppable at the moment and are 7 points ahead of Liverpool with a game in hand.