English Championship 12 Feb -14 Feb 2021
As I mentioned when posting about the midweek games earlier this week, we included Blackburn v Preston in those games so this is a repeat of what I said for tonight’s game:
‘Blackburn are the highest scoring team outside the top 6 and this is reflected in their higher expected goals. They are also at over 50% to win in our model with bookmakers showing only 3% less likely’.
Our model now matches very closely to bookmakers for that match as it has adjusted Blackburn to slightly under 50% with now only 1% between our likely outcome of a Blackburn win and bookmakers similar prediction.
Across the Division, our predictions match up pretty closely to bookmakers expectations (one exception being Nottm Forest v Bournemouth where our model favours Forest and bookmakers favour Bournemouth)
Brentford have reached 2 expected goals this week due to their excellent form and now being top of the league. A 1-0 home win is nearly 14% likely as the exact score with a 2-0 win at 11.4%.
Whilst Brentford have the highest percentage score on Outcome Probabilities in our table below (i.e. how likely we think they are to win), Huddersfield are second as they play bottom of the league Wycombe. We have them as 55% for a win. With Wycombe at just over 21%.
Elsewhere we have Reading drawing with Millwall (a 1-1 is 12.7% likely as the most likely score) and Sheffield Wednesday drawing with Swansea. Although our model favours both Reading and Swansea at over 40% likely to win.