English Championship 12 March 2021
Blackburn Rovers v Brentford
Tonight’s game sees 14th v 4th, with Brentford having slightly lost their way a bit since their 21 match unbeaten run.
They have still won two of their last five games whereas Blackburn have won only 1 of their last five, drawing two.
The teams haven’t played each other too many times, Blackburn have won 19 to Brentford’s 13
Our model slightly favours Brentford at 38% but bookmakers mean odds are higher at 45% (see table below). The teams are also pretty close on expected goals with only 0.08% between them.
Most likely score: 1-1
Nottingham Forest v Reading
Reading have won their last three games and Forest have lost their last two. Reading have also scored 21 more goals than Forest although they have let in three more.
Our model slightly favours Forest but Reading have a higher ELO score and somewhat surprisingly have a decent historic record against Forest winning 17 times, losing 20 but in the last four games have won 2 and drawn 2. The last time Forest won was in 2018.
Bookmakers have very similar mean odds to our scorecast with less than 1/2 a percent between our model and bookmakers odds for a Reading win (33.2% to 33.6%), however, I still think Reading will win.
Most likely score: 1-1
Sheffield Wednesday v Norwich
Sheffield Wednesday haven’t won in ages and are 23rd in the league against a Norwich team that is ten points clear at the top of the league so although this is the only Sunday match for the Championship, it certainly doesn’t seem like a very fair match up.
Naturally our model favours Norwich. There is less than 1% between our model and bookmakers mean odds, in terms of the likelihood of Norwich winning. Norwich are showing at 1.82 on expected goals with Wednesday on 0.88.
Most likely score: 0-1 (0-1 is 12.3% likely; 0-2 is 11.2% likely).
Elsewhere in the league it is noticeable still how close the league generally is. Norwich are the highest on Expected Goals (1.82) this week but the nearest to them are QPR on 1.48 and this is only because they are playing Huddersfield who have the second worst defence in the league.
