Premier League weekend 14/5/21 – 16/5/21
It’s the FA Cup final on Saturday afternoon so four teams are not playing in the Premier League this weekend (Arsenal, Chelsea, Leicester and Man Utd).
This seems to have played havoc with our data collection so the only two matches we can cover at the moment are tonight’s game between Newcastle and Man City and the FA Cup final itself, largely because it is being played out again on Tuesday.
The title is won and relegation places are finalised so the remaining weeks are really about the jostling for European places.
Liverpool have made a late surge and if they can win away to West Brom they are then only one place off a Champions League place behind Chelsea.
I think West Ham are probably too far off for them to claim a Champions League spot now but an away win against Brighton would keep them in contention. Both teams are relying on Chelsea to drop points though (our model has them winning on Tuesday so this probably sorts that question).
In tonight’s game though, Newcastle don’t have much hope against league winners Man City despite the fact they won their last game.
We have City on 8.5% less than bookmakers to win at 65%, whereas they have them on 73.5% to win.
Now they don’t have to win it will be interesting to see who they actually pick and whether a few lesser known players get to play. The most likely score is a 2-0 Man City win at 11.3%, with a 1-0 City win at 11%.
FA Cup final
On Tuesday in the league Saturday’s FA Cup final is replicated between Chelsea and Leicester and we have that included in the model.
The model favours Chelsea as it factors in home odds and has Chelsea winning 1-0 with a 57% likelihood to win with bookmakers having them at 53%. Leicester are only on 19% to win in our model and 21% with bookmakers.
Even if you take away the factor of home advantage which Chelsea won’t really have at Wembley, it still looks like a Chelsea win is most likely.
*We will likely update the remaining fixtures on Saturday
